August, September, and October are historically the worst three months for market performance and 2023 was no different. Everything but cash, oil and short-term treasuries had negative 3rd quarter returns. The S&P 500 lost 3.25%, small caps fell 5%, international markets dropped 3.5%, and long-term treasuries lost an astounding 8%.
The culprit was interest rates. Not just the shortest-term rate that the Federal Reserve controls but also long-term rates, which are determined by bond traders. There were two main reasons that long-term rates went up sharply. First, the Fed made it clear that it intends to hold interest rates high far longer than the bond market expected. Second, with the US fiscal deficit climbing, the Treasury must issue and sell more bonds. Simple supply/demand dynamics resulted in lower bond prices, which pushes interest rates higher. The 10-year US Treasury note began the quarter with a rate of 3.85%. At the end of September, it had risen to 4.8%. Rising rates are bad enough but when they rise at such a fast pace, long-term assets with a yield – dividend stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. – lose value quickly. For example, defensive stocks such as utilities lost almost 10% during the quarter. And since the beginning of 2021, the 20-year US Treasury bond has lost a staggering 50% of its value. All due to interest rates.
Today we are at an interesting crossroads. The Fed may be done (or close to being done) raising short-term rates as inflation is cooling off. But we are not out of the woods yet. We have outlined the signs of potential recession in several past commentaries, and they continue to become more apparent. What’s sustaining our economy is the robust consumer and very low unemployment. Consumers are showing some signs of slowing down, and employers are less eager to hire than just a few months ago. It’s natural that the economy will continue slowing as rate increases keep working through the economy. It will be a close call as to whether inflation can slow to the Fed’s stated goal of 2% before economic growth becomes economic slowdown. It may be several more months before the answers play out.
However, we see some opportunities today. Entering the 4th quarter we updated our positioning into areas where we see that opportunity. Read More . . .
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
The big question for investors now is where to be invested going forward. With the overall market trading at 20x earnings and first half gains concentrated into only a select few stocks, most of the market has been left behind. With the valuations of the high-fliers now in excessive territory, the rest of the market looks much more attractive. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials, energy, materials and consumer staples are a relative bargain and beginning to see some traction. We have maintained value exposure in all of our strategies, seeing better risk/reward near-term than in large growth. Yet the best longer-term risk/reward is in areas not much investor attention has been paid to in several years.
We see potential in sectors and industries left behind in this tech-centric advance. The relative weaker performance of small cap companies to large caps appears to have begun unwinding. We have meaningfully added to small caps in recent months. Today, foreign markets are most attractive as they are generally at lower P/E ratios, and with virtually all regions (except Europe and Japan) growing faster, they offer better value. Plus, when the Fed stops hiking rates, the U.S. Dollar should weaken relative to foreign currencies, which enhances foreign markets’ performance in dollar terms.
We stay focused on what we can control and seek the best longer-term opportunities for growth. The impact and mistakes made during and after the pandemic continue working themselves out. This is a perfect example of the cyclical dangers we work to avoid with our time-appropriate strategies. For our clients with current income needs, we maintain a sufficient level of conservative assets to withstand periods of market weakness until the tide ultimately turns higher. With shorter-term needs funded, longer-term capital can remain invested for growth, and fund future goals. This is part of each client’s personalized investment structure. We like to tell our clients to go live and enjoy life, because we’ve got their backs!
Meet Megan. She’s in her early 30s, single (for now) and fairly stable in her career, although she may change employers.
Like most younger professionals we work with, Megan was unsure how to get started. She had a couple of previous company retirement accounts and a Roth IRA she started years ago. She had accumulated a sizable bank account but was unsure how to invest, especially after seeing her parents experience mixed results.
Integras Analysis
Our conversations determined that she was living within her means, needed a cash “safety net” (for unexpected car repairs or job search) and besides retirement hopes one day to start a family and own a home.
Recommendations
A modest increase to her retirement contributions, to better fund her primary goal, retirement. A 2% increase for someone earning $100K typically lowers bi-weekly take-home by about $50
Set aside a “safety net” savings account for unexpected expenses
Allocate her remaining cash into two strategic accounts. First, a moderate account seeking 4% to 5% returns for goals in the next 3-5 years. Then, a growth account seeking appreciation over the 5-10 years it might be before settling down
Consolidate her former company plans
Results
With her “safety net” in place, Megan started an automatic bank draft of $100/month to her moderate account and is comfortable making the monthly maximum (currently $500) to her Roth IRA. Besides tax-free growth, once you’ve owned a Roth for five years you can withdraw up to $10,000 without penalty towards a first-time home purchase!
We consolidated her former company plans and helped allocate her current employer’s 401(k)
Now, her retirement investments complement each other, and she has a track to meet her primary goal
