Laser-focus on inflation was the key driver of both interest rates and market performance over the past two years.
Inflation continues retreating towards the targeted 2% range, which should largely be achieved around mid-year. We expect the Fed will begin lowering rates during the summer. While the bond market has priced-in 6 rate cuts for the year, beginning as early as March, we believe it will be a more modest and later cutting cycle. From there, the narrative should shift from inflation and interest rates back to the fundamentals of economic growth and earnings. There is still a risk that the economy could pick up steam and inflation return to haunt us once again, a la 1980. Nor are we out of the woods of potential economic weakness. But we see light at the end of the tunnel.
We remain optimistic about the long-awaited resurgence of small-cap, value, and international stocks closing the performance gap versus U.S. large-cap growth over the ensuing economic cycle.
The old maxim of ‘no tree grows to the sky’ will ultimately prevail. We find it unlikely that valuations of the “Magnificent 7” can continue to rise unabated. Valuation is a fundamental driver of long-term performance, and small caps and international markets remain undervalued relative to history.
As we expect a return to economic fundamentals over 2024, much depends on the economic growth and labor productivity needed for earnings to meet or exceed expectations. Should the economy slow, stock markets will have a hard time producing meaningful gains. While not our base case, we will remain mindful of the many economic indicators still flashing red.
We understand it is an election year. As November approaches, we typically see markets stagnate or slightly decline as the uncertainty and anticipation mounts. However, history tells us that regardless of who wins, there is negligible impact on financial markets in aggregate. In the end, regardless of whether your favored party wins or loses, there is no advantage in changing investment policy.
The normalization of interest rates is an uncertain path and forecasting economic growth is even more difficult. As investment themes change throughout the year, we will be looking for areas where valuation and earnings potential appear strongest – a disciplined approach that has served us well long-term.
What remains paramount is our desire to always take care of our clients’ current investment needs, while working towards achieving long-term investment goals.
With our time horizon investment process, we have successfully sheltered near-term spending needs from market disruptions, giving the longer-term assets the time needed to allow these disruptions to play out. Our long-held mantra of “go live life, we’ve got your back” has worked throughout this period of upheaval and we will be making sure that continues.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
While the S&P 500 rose 26% at the headline level, it was almost entirely due to just seven “magnificent” tech stocks. The remaining 493 names contributed very little – on average up just 4%. This concentrated market condition continued through October when we finally enjoyed broadening market participation. Small cap stocks began a long-awaited turn-around with a two-month advance of 16%. The broad International Index rose 18%. Both are areas we overweighted in 2023 due to their relative valuations. While we think these sectors will continue to waffle back and forth for several months (as January has already shown), we expect a further broadening of market performance once we get some assurance on timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Interest rates have been the story since early 2022 and October showed what happens when our uncontrolled fiscal deficit intersects with decreasing foreign demand for Treasuries. The 10-year Bond went from a yield of 3.3% in May to 5% in October as auctions witnessed a pullback in foreign investors. This will become a larger theme in the future should our deficit growth continue unabated. Nevertheless, as inflation readings continued to decrease during the Fall and the market began anticipating rate cuts, the yield on the 10-year treasury ended 2023 at 3.9%.
We wrote last quarter that we were cautiously optimistic.
But the year ended better than, even we, anticipated. Surprising employment strength and increasing home prices have remained dominant forces keeping the U.S. from entering recession. As consumers spend down COVID savings, they remain heartened by job stability, so overall spending has remained quite strong. Strong home values have also buoyed consumer confidence. This is very different from the historical pattern (although welcome and needed). In a normal economic contraction, people lose jobs and must sell homes, increasing housing inventories which bring prices down. In this rate cycle over 90% of existing homes carried mortgages under 4%. People were not forced to sell and have no desire to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. Inventory remains tight while demand stays solid, so prices have risen. The banking system remains resilient, financial conditions have eased, and financial market performance followed.
Heading into 2024, we see light at the end of the tunnel, while recognizing the risks that are still present.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
19% of women report feeling confident selecting investments that align with their goals
This is a discouraging statistic from a recent survey conducted on women and investing. We know that a gender gap exists when it comes to investing – on average, data shows that women’s investment account balances are less than men’s. There are a few often-cited reasons for this. The gender pay gap still exists, and women statistically spend more time outside of the workforce, meaning that women may simply have less money to invest.
But there is another reason. Women tend to feel less confident taking investment risk and therefore hold more cash on the sidelines, hampering their money’s growth potential.
But there is a difference between taking risk, and taking inappropriate risk for your goals. Women tend to benchmark successful investing not by the return numbers themselves, but by progress towards goals – buying a house, funding an education, or retiring comfortably.
Defining your goals and their timeframes is the first step toward building the confidence to invest. Money that you don’t need for 10 or 15 years can afford to be invested for growth. The farther along the timeline your goal is, the more certainty you can have of capturing greater returns by investing.
When women do invest, they see results. On average, women outperformed their male counterparts by 40 basis points or 0.4% over a 10-year analysis
On the flip side, studies show that over time, women’s investment returns tend to outperform men’s, with women exhibiting less impulsive investment decisions and staying the course when there is market volatility.
Starting early is the most powerful thing you can do to put yourself on track. If you didn’t start early, start now. Women already have the proclivity to stay invested to meet their goals, we just need the confidence to invest in the first place!
I joined Integras Partners in 2022 wanting to broaden my impact on people’s lives, particularly groups that have been underserved by the financial advice community – groups like women and single earners, which I am also a part of. Integras Partners was already well suited to women investors – focusing on the partnership and the “why” behind financial goals.
I’ll be writing more about these areas in coming newsletters, as well as general financial wellness and investing topics that I hope you will find interesting.
Employer retirement plans are often an individual’s greatest investment, because employees keep the long-term mindset needed to stay invested during down markets. Plus, investments are made with every paycheck and equal contributions buy more shares when markets are down.
Unfortunately, many employees limit their salary-deferral contributions to only capture their employer’s match. If you pay your bills in full every month and have adequate savings, we recommend increasing your contributions, for all the reasons above.
For 2024, the new deductible limit for employees under 50 is $23,000. If you turn 50 before the end of the year, you can add another $7,500.
Lastly, you want to spread your contributions out to last through every paycheck, so you capture all the employer-matching dollars available to you.
Do you still have money in a former employer’s plan?
Employers have greatly narrowed plan investment choices to avoid liability after the tech bubble of 2001.
Some plans restrict investment choices to “target date” and generic index funds.
If you’re retirement-minded, getting out of employer plans usually provides greater flexibility in taking money out, including frequency and tax withholding choices.
Bullish sentiment ran out of steam during Q3 2023. In a previous blog we discussed the primary culprit for that. All that said, we are now in the final quarter of the year. Investors entered October in a pessimistic mood and with lots of cash riding out the storm in money market accounts (earning close to 5%). Historically, the last quarter usually sees the strongest market performance. On the back of some pessimism, we think the stage could be set for a significant catch-up.
We recently increased client stock exposure in anticipation of a rebound. We focused on small and mid-cap companies that have not followed the market-moving “Magnificent 7” (the new FAANG stocks). We are much more comfortable with the potential downside when buying at 14-15 times earnings vs. 35-40 times for the largest tech companies.
We have also recently increased safety within our shortest time horizon “Liquid Assets Strategy” by selling our high-yield bond fund position. We think a credit crunch has begun and choose to hold risk-free cash earning 5% rather than accept the risk of BBB-rated bonds earning 6%.
Economic growth is slowing. Businesses are faced with refinancing debt at much higher interest rates, and rates may remain high for many months. Corporate earnings should stay positive but are still vulnerable. The Consumer is still strong, as are home prices and employment. But leading economic indicators continue to weaken. Investors are having a difficult time forecasting the future. It’s a toss-up as to whether the Fed can engineer the magical “soft landing” markets were certain of just a few short months ago. Market sentiment is terrible, and we view this as an opportunity.
The war in the Middle East is heartbreaking, and we keep the civilians at the forefront of our prayers. The cold calculus of markets and economics is that unless the conflict broadens into a regional affair there should be little impact on financial markets. Should it widen to include Iran in particular, that calculus will change.
There have always been geopolitical events and market uncertainties. Our time horizon strategies coupled with detailed financial planning reduces the impact of market risks on our clients’ ability to live the lives they choose. When investment risk is pushed to long time horizons, growth strategies are allowed to perform their best. Over more than a decade, Integras Partners has successfully navigated tumultuous periods without having to give up exposure to the long-term growth needed in almost every portfolio.
Our structural portfolio design provides the comfort to enjoy life today, recognizing that while markets are inconsistent, freedom to live life isn’t.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
August, September, and October are historically the worst three months for market performance and 2023 was no different. Everything but cash, oil and short-term treasuries had negative 3rd quarter returns. The S&P 500 lost 3.25%, small caps fell 5%, international markets dropped 3.5%, and long-term treasuries lost an astounding 8%.
The culprit was interest rates. Not just the shortest-term rate that the Federal Reserve controls but also long-term rates, which are determined by bond traders. There were two main reasons that long-term rates went up sharply. First, the Fed made it clear that it intends to hold interest rates high far longer than the bond market expected. Second, with the US fiscal deficit climbing, the Treasury must issue and sell more bonds. Simple supply/demand dynamics resulted in lower bond prices, which pushes interest rates higher. The 10-year US Treasury note began the quarter with a rate of 3.85%. At the end of September, it had risen to 4.8%. Rising rates are bad enough but when they rise at such a fast pace, long-term assets with a yield – dividend stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. – lose value quickly. For example, defensive stocks such as utilities lost almost 10% during the quarter. And since the beginning of 2021, the 20-year US Treasury bond has lost a staggering 50% of its value. All due to interest rates.
Today we are at an interesting crossroads. The Fed may be done (or close to being done) raising short-term rates as inflation is cooling off. But we are not out of the woods yet. We have outlined the signs of potential recession in several past commentaries, and they continue to become more apparent. What’s sustaining our economy is the robust consumer and very low unemployment. Consumers are showing some signs of slowing down, and employers are less eager to hire than just a few months ago. It’s natural that the economy will continue slowing as rate increases keep working through the economy. It will be a close call as to whether inflation can slow to the Fed’s stated goal of 2% before economic growth becomes economic slowdown. It may be several more months before the answers play out.
However, we see some opportunities today. Entering the 4th quarter we updated our positioning into areas where we see that opportunity. Read More . . .
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
