The S&P 500® Index (S&P) is up 16% YTD after posting back-to-back 8% quarterly returns. In the face of a deteriorating economic backdrop and expectations for even higher interest rates, this exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. However, not all is rosy with this advance. 75% of the gain was due to only 7 mega-cap stocks, and 95% due to the largest 30 companies as the hype around Artificial Intelligence sparked near mania for anything related to the technology. The rest of the market advanced less than 1% – not the healthy advance of a broad rally. To signal a healthier investment environment, there must be broader participation across sectors and market caps. (For the record, as of this writing we are pleased to be beginning to see just that).
While surprising gains are welcome, they point to potential repercussions for the rest of the year. The S&P is now expensive, trading at a 20x price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). It seems rather optimistic that earnings can grow quickly enough to sustain these prices, in the context of a Fed predicting two more rate hikes this year, multiple signs of a weakening economy (outside of housing and employment), and the previous rate hikes having yet to fully impact the broader economy. Despite many signals to the contrary, markets appear to have ruled out not only recession, but slower earnings in a weakening economy.
Economic growth remains but is slowing. Spending in the travel, dining and other service sectors remains strong, but cash accumulations and consumer confidence are waning. The manufacturing economy is weakening as spending on goods is slowing. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising while banks tighten lending to only the most credit worthy. As the summer travel season tapers off, we expect households to reassess spending and consumer demand to slow this Fall.
While much of the economy is contracting, some parts continue to grow (technology, travel-related industries, construction, etc.). The housing market remains strong due to a severe supply imbalance and continuing job growth. Assuming no widespread credit defaults, banking crises or liquidity issues, we may very well escape true recession and end up calling this period a rolling recession, where economic sectors phase through recessionary cycles at different times. This is what the market is currently signaling it believes is happening.
We are near the end of the Fed tightening cycle. Consensus views are for two more rate hikes of 0.25%. The drivers for these additional hikes are continued inflation in housing and services. Then, we will see how much demand destruction, credit constriction and confidence erosion has occurred and whether the economy can continue growth in the face of a 5.5% Fed funds rate. The narrative will be a slow moving and ever-changing picture.
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