Working with Integras Partners brings confidence to your financial journey. We help clients not worry so much about money, knowing that an expert is minding your investments.
Many individual investors let emotions and procrastination impact their decisions – hesitating to buy when prices fall and feeling eager to invest when markets are strong. A disciplined advisor provides steady, informed guidance to improve your financial outcomes.
August through October are historically the weakest and most volatile period for stocks and bonds alike. This year appears to be exceptional. Few expected the strength and resilience demonstrated by financial markets in the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index® posted a stellar 5.77% gain, posting year-to-date gains of 22%. Unlike recent years, the gain was not due to only a few large tech and communications stocks. We’re seeing overdue and much preferable broadening of stocks showing positive returns, and not just from the largest U.S. companies, but in small-caps and foreign markets as well.
The economy remains strong as the Fed begins its interest rate cutting cycle. Not too hot, and not too cold. Just like the story of a lost girl, everything is now “just right”. The Fed is done raising rates, employment strength continues, and economic growth is solid. These conditions amount to a “Goldilocks Scenario”, just about perfect to sustain corporate earnings growth and stock gains. Earnings growth should accrue to the value and small cap sectors, which until recently have lagged the large tech-dominated themes that were driving the market. At Integras Partners, we have been increasing our client allocations to these undervalued areas of the market for several months.
With lower relative prices, small-caps in particular should become even more attractive to investors, given that this Goldilocks scenario lasts for a while. We saw some confirmation of this in the third quarter as the lower P/E stocks began to outperform.
Integras Partners makes it easier to stay invested by actively managing client portfolios across our time-horizon strategies. We do this by keeping low-risk investments to provide for near term goals, allowing you more comfort with keeping longer-term investments intact through market swings. We can help you capture the long-term gains that volatile markets generate over time with less stress.
First, you may want to read our current market commentary. It details why the markets are particularly attractive right now. You can check it out here.
Employer retirement plans are often your greatest investment, for several reasons.
Funds tend to stay invested long-term, riding out down cycles to capture real growth
Salary-deferral investments made with every paycheck take advantage of market moves buying more shares when markets are down, and less when prices are higher.
Many employers match some contributions to help build your retirement funding.
Don’t limit your contributions to only capture your employer’s match.
Remember that Traditional 401(k) deferrals are pre-tax, so an extra $100 a month typically reduces your bi-weekly paycheck by only $32.
2024, contribution limit is $23,000. If you’re 50 this year, can add another $7,500.
Do you still have money in a former employer’s plan?
Employers have greatly narrowed plan investment choices to avoid liability after the tech bubble of 2001.
Some plans restrict investment choices to “target date” and generic index funds.
If you’re retirement-minded, you can “rollover” an old 401(k)’s to an IRA without tax impact, usually getting greater freedoms in how you invest and spend your savings, including your own tax withholding choices.
For young professionals building a career, financial goals might seem far away and not get attention. It’s a fact that the sooner you begin, the greater certainty you have of reaching those goals. Not sure where to begin? Here’s what to think about first:
1) Capture all your company match – If your employer offers a retirement plan with an employer match, contribute at least enough to capture the full percentage. You must be contributing some of your own money for the employer to match it. You want your contributions to stretch through the last pay period of the year to get the last dollar.
2) Pay down credit cards – This is the next place to direct excess money if you have credit card debt. The average credit card interest rate is currently over 20%! At that rate, paying $200 per month on a $10,000 credit card balance would take you 5 years to pay off, and cost you over $5,000 in interest.
3) Emergency Savings – Set aside enough money to cover unexpected costs. Having adequate savings can help you avoid taking on debt and allow you to build investment accounts. You could automate savings by having some of your paycheck go directly into a high yield savings account.
4) Gradually contribute more to employer retirement plan (or IRAs) – Once you are debt-free and have built some savings, increase contributions to your employer plan. If your employer offers a ROTH 401(k), look here next – or open your own Roth IRA.
5) Contribute to a brokerage account – Brokerage investment accounts are where you can build wealth for goals prior to retirement, like home ownership, starting a business or any goal with a defined timeframe. Most investments here have preferential tax treatment which also provides flexibility to better manage taxes during retirement.
The S&P 500 Index® gained 15% in the first half of 2024. However, this gain was not as healthy as it appeared on the surface. The top 10 stocks represent more of the S&P than they have at any time in the last 25 years. Without the top 10 stocks, the remaining 490 names were up only 4%. We’ve written about performance disparities in several of our quarterly commentaries – large vs. small companies, growth vs. value, domestic vs. international. These types of disparities can’t last forever – either the rest of the market catches up or the top of the market cools down. We were happy to see some of the former this month, but we still find ourselves in a very concentrated market.
Many newer investors begin with index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, which means the largest companies in the index determine most of its performance. Today, the stock prices of these largest companies tend to move together – they are driven by similar factors such as enthusiasm over AI. So, a decline in one big name often drags the others down. Career Builders should think about broadening their investments (beyond the largest U.S. companies) to gain exposure to additional factors that tend to reward investors over time. Career Builders have the power of time on their side. Investing early in your career is always a good idea.
In addition to the issue of market concentration, there are beginning signs of a cooling economy. We can’t say that a recession is around the corner. U.S. economic growth continues, inflation is crawling lower, and consumer spending on services (travel, etc.) is strong. However, unemployment claims are rising. Broad consumer spending and housing sales are both slowing. Disinflationary forces are beginning to be felt and the earnings growth needed to support stock prices could become challenged. We advise Established Professionals to keep safer investments for money needed in the shorter term. But it is important to keep a long-term perspective for your retirement savings. Fear of the short-term and the emotional investment responses it can cause can be a major detriment to meeting your goal.
In a market trading at 24x earnings, some healthy caution is in order, but we’re not reducing stock exposure at this point. Despite the market’s concentration risks, overall corporate earnings should strengthen the remainder of this year and beyond. Over long periods, markets trend higher, even with downturns and corrections along the way. Our portfolios are structured to withstand these downturns, with money needed in earlier retirement years invested most conservatively.
There is still the question of how long interest rates will remain elevated. We expect to see inflation moderate, and the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September. This should allow capital-intensive businesses and commercial real estate borrowers to refinance at lower rates – feeding economic activity and supporting those smaller-cap stocks that have underperformed the largest companies.
Most 401(k) and other retirement plans offer Target Date Funds (TDFs) as a default choice. They have become increasingly popular for a few good reasons but are rarely the best solution once your accounts achieve some size.
Let’s look at how they work and whether they are the most efficient choice for you.
TDFs are a great choice for beginners, or when you join a new employer plan. There is usually a lineup of funds targeting retirement dates in increments of five or so years. The concept is that the fund becomes increasingly conservative as the target date approaches, but that is a one-size-fits-all approach that can’t take your unique needs into account.
So, when are TDFs not the best investment choice?
To start, all of your money is invested with one fund family, instead of getting different approaches and methodologies. These funds are also usually invested across all asset classes and industries instead of those best suited to the current economic environment. They also evenly spread bond exposure instead of actively selecting the most appropriate bond sectors.
The biggest challenge with TDFs is that you don’t want all your investments too conservative as you enter retirement.
Yes, you want to make sure that you have some conservative assets to draw from during rough patches, but you still need growth during retirement to keep pace with inflation.
Here are a few things to consider:
· Do you actively rebalance your accounts?
· Does your plan have tools to evaluate your allocation vs. your goals and timeframes?
· Do you compare what you own against what’s available?
· Have you considered the advantages of an IRA for funds in an old employer plan?
· Are you layering investment risks to match your goal timeframes?
