Elections can stir strong emotions, but don’t let them delay your investing. Historically, markets are influenced more by economic fundamentals than politics.
Stock values fluctuate under every president, but the S&P 500 Index® trends higher over the long term, no matter who’s in the Oval Office.
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors
Or which party controls Congress:
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors
Market reactions to elections create short-term volatility, but defensive changes to your investments are usually detrimental. Regardless of tax policy or regulations, factors like corporate earnings growth, economic conditions, and technological advancements have more impact on market performance.
Integras Partners with clients to keep a long-term perspective, overcome emotional delays, and take action. By keeping short-term cash needs invested with less market risk, we give clients the peace of mind to keep longer-term money invested and feel more comfortable during periods of short-term market craziness.
August through October are historically the weakest and most volatile period for stocks and bonds alike. This year appears to be exceptional. Few expected the strength and resilience demonstrated by financial markets in the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index® posted a stellar 5.77% gain, posting year-to-date gains of 22%. Unlike recent years, the gain was not due to only a few large tech and communications stocks. We’re seeing overdue and much preferable broadening of stocks showing positive returns, and not just from the largest U.S. companies, but in small-caps and foreign markets as well.
The economy remains strong as the Fed begins its interest rate cutting cycle. Not too hot, and not too cold. Just like the story of a lost girl, everything is now “just right”. The Fed is done raising rates, employment strength continues, and economic growth is solid. These conditions amount to a “Goldilocks Scenario”, just about perfect to sustain corporate earnings growth and stock gains. Earnings growth should accrue to the value and small cap sectors, which until recently have lagged the large tech-dominated themes that were driving the market. At Integras Partners, we have been increasing our client allocations to these undervalued areas of the market for several months.
With lower relative prices, small-caps in particular should become even more attractive to investors, given that this Goldilocks scenario lasts for a while. We saw some confirmation of this in the third quarter as the lower P/E stocks began to outperform.
Integras Partners makes it easier to stay invested by actively managing client portfolios across our time-horizon strategies. We do this by keeping low-risk investments to provide for near term goals, allowing you more comfort with keeping longer-term investments intact through market swings. We can help you capture the long-term gains that volatile markets generate over time with less stress.
First, you may want to read our current market commentary. It details why the markets are particularly attractive right now. You can check it out here.
Employer retirement plans are often your greatest investment, for several reasons.
Funds tend to stay invested long-term, riding out down cycles to capture real growth
Salary-deferral investments made with every paycheck take advantage of market moves buying more shares when markets are down, and less when prices are higher.
Many employers match some contributions to help build your retirement funding.
Don’t limit your contributions to only capture your employer’s match.
Remember that Traditional 401(k) deferrals are pre-tax, so an extra $100 a month typically reduces your bi-weekly paycheck by only $32.
The 2025 contribution limit is $23,500. If you’re 50 or older, you can add another $7,500.
Do you still have money in a former employer’s plan?
Employers have greatly narrowed plan investment choices to avoid liability after the tech bubble of 2001.
Some plans restrict investment choices to “target date” and generic index funds.
If you’re retirement-minded, you can “rollover” an old 401(k)’s balance to an IRA without tax impact, usually getting greater freedoms in how you invest and spend your savings, including your own tax withholding choices.
Glen & Amber are sandwiched between their elder parents and three children, ages 15-24. Glen has been managing their investments on his own and would like to retire from his corporate job. With family pressures complicating this decision, friends referred them to us for financial advice.
In our Discovery Meeting, we learned that Glen’s parents are in their late seventies and becoming less independent. His sister lives closest to them but increasingly frequent trips are straining her family. Amber’s parents are divorced; her dad and his wife are stable, but her mom is struggling with health and financial issues.
Seeking comfort for Glen’s career decision, we started with the family needs. Through our Generational Conversations program, we provided comprehensive information on care management options. Hiring occasional home caregivers who report to Glen’s sister proved to be a good solution. Amber’s mother moved into independent senior living at a reasonable monthly cost. She is now happier in a social setting and Amber is greatly relieved. The proceeds from selling her mom’s home combined with Social Security will keep mom financially stable for many years.
The couple’s elder daughter, Olivia graduated college with some 529 funds remaining, which we transferred to their middle child. Olivia is now largely independent with a first job, and gets occasional support from her parents.
In addition to increasing 529 contributions for the younger kids, we opened custodial (or UTMA) accounts. These are irrevocable gifts that a parent controls until the children reach their state’s age of majority. Unlike 529’s, they can receive annual gifts of stock and mutual funds and get a preferential tax rate on sales. Glen gifted some appreciated company stock which was promptly sold. The proceeds can immediately cover some extracurricular expenses and later fund college costs ineligible for 529’s like cars, Greek life and entertainment.
With family issues addressed, we narrowed in on the retirement conversation. We explored Social Security strategies. Glen also expects some consulting opportunities. We all agreed to start managing Glen and Amber’s investments right away. Our paradigm of aligning investments to match expected income needs brings comfort around retirement spending, while capturing growth with longer-term dollars.
Generational Conversations also supports adult children and their elder parents to plan for housing, legal strategies and security needs.
First, let’s look at the three types of accounts by their tax treatment.
Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts are funded with untaxed dollars (contributions are tax deductible, either through salary-deferral or on your tax return). However, future withdrawals are fully taxed as ordinary income. Examples include 401(k)s and traditional IRAs.
Taxable Accounts are funded with after-tax dollars. Dividends and gains from sales receive preferential tax rates. Because you’re paying taxes in the years that income or sales occur, withdrawals aren’t taxed. These are usually mutual fund and stock accounts.
Roth Account contributions are not tax deductible. However, they grow tax-free forever, and withdrawals are never taxed.
It’s best to spread money across these three account types while you are working. This will give you some flexibility to manage your taxes in retirement, which could help your money last longer. Having different types of accounts also provides options for early retirees.
Optimal investment and withdrawal strategies are different for everyone. Factors include age, tax brackets, employer plan features, and investable income. Powerful retirement planning is best done well in advance and then annually while taking distributions.
Retirement planning is one of the most important things that we do for clients. We would be happy to discuss your situation and how we might be of service.
For young professionals building a career, financial goals might seem far away and not get attention. It’s a fact that the sooner you begin, the greater certainty you have of reaching those goals. Not sure where to begin? Here’s what to think about first:
1) Capture all your company match – If your employer offers a retirement plan with an employer match, contribute at least enough to capture the full percentage. You must be contributing some of your own money for the employer to match it. You want your contributions to stretch through the last pay period of the year to get the last dollar.
2) Pay down credit cards – This is the next place to direct excess money if you have credit card debt. The average credit card interest rate is currently over 20%! At that rate, paying $200 per month on a $10,000 credit card balance would take you 5 years to pay off, and cost you over $5,000 in interest.
3) Emergency Savings – Set aside enough money to cover unexpected costs. Having adequate savings can help you avoid taking on debt and allow you to build investment accounts. You could automate savings by having some of your paycheck go directly into a high yield savings account.
4) Gradually contribute more to employer retirement plan (or IRAs) – Once you are debt-free and have built some savings, increase contributions to your employer plan. If your employer offers a ROTH 401(k), look here next – or open your own Roth IRA.
5) Contribute to a brokerage account – Brokerage investment accounts are where you can build wealth for goals prior to retirement, like home ownership, starting a business or any goal with a defined timeframe. Most investments here have preferential tax treatment which also provides flexibility to better manage taxes during retirement.
Investment performance is not consistent and neither is retiree spending. Early retirees usually travel more and increase spending on hobbies. You may buy a car once every 5 years. Healthcare spending increases as we age. So, why should your portfolio focus on providing a fixed income? Integras Partners adapts portfolio allocations to market dynamics and your changing needs.
We match investments to fulfill projected cash flows. First, we set aside enough money to supplement social security, etc. for up to 30 months depending on our economic outlook. Taking little risk with immediate income provides comfort to spend. The beauty is most of your assets can capture long-term returns without short-term risk.
Integras Partners uses different strategies for graduated time-horizons, optimizing market risk for each timeframe. Every client has unique circumstances and a unique allocation. As a fee-only investment advisor, we don’t charge commissions and are always acting in your best interest.
More and more people are unmarried or living alone by choice. Planning for your future on your own can be empowering yet intimidating at the same time. Many singles greatly value independence, and having a solid plan in place can pave the path to financial independence as well.
Here are a few things to think about as a single-person household:
Build Emergency Savings First: Emergency savings is a foundational piece of any financial plan, but for those living on a single income, an unexpected expense or loss of income could be especially stressful. We recommend using a high yield savings account. The right amount of savings varies for everyone, but a general rule of thumb is 6 months of living expenses.
Invest for Retirement: Planning for retirement becomes even more important when funding it by yourself. If your employer offers a retirement plan with a match, contribute at least enough to capture the full match. Max your contributions if you can, especially in earlier years when your money has the most time to compound. Don’t overlook Roth accounts (if you have access) and taxable accounts. Having the flexibility to withdraw from accounts with differing tax treatment in retirement can stretch your retirement savings further.
Insurance: You probably don’t need life insurance if you don’t have people depending on your income, but consider long-term disability insurance which can replace income If you become disabled. It’s worth evaluating options outside of coverage that your employer may offer – there are differences in benefits, premiums and portability. Also consider long-term care insurance, which can offset costs if you need in-home care or need to move into a care facility later in life. These costs can be great, and it is a mistaken belief that Medicare will cover them.
Estate Planning: Many people think estate planning is only for couples or parents. Without a will or named beneficiaries, the state that you live in will determine what happens to your assets when you die (they will go through a successive list of relatives). You may have more distant relatives, friends, or charities that you wish your assets to go to. It’s also important to think about protecting your wishes when it comes to financial and healthcare decisions, should you become unable to communicate or make decisions yourself. This is where powers of attorney and healthcare directives come into play. If you don’t have a trusted person to act on your behalf, there are options such as attorneys and registered nurse health care advocates.
Integras Partners understands the unique considerations singles face. We help define your goals and create a path to reach them.
Wherever you are on your journey, we’re with you every step of the way.
Ann was facing her next chapter in life. She was recently widowed and had been considering retirement. She wanted to live near grandchildren and downsize her home.
Almost all of Ann’s assets were in a company retirement plan, advised by the plan’s financial advisor. Because they told the advisor that they “didn’t want to lose money”, Ann’s allocation was 55% short-term bonds and 45% cash. She was eligible for a widow’s Social Security benefit but was reluctant to retire, fearful that she didn’t have enough money.
Ann’s fear stemmed from her thinking that she needed to preserve the capital and live off the interest. Our philosophy is that retirees don’t need to preserve all their capital for their heirs, they just need to not run out of money. Ann actually had enough to retire but it was too conservatively invested to meet all of her spending needs throughout retirement. Our layered risk approach allows clients to feel more peace spending in retirement. This is because we take modest risk with investments for the next several years of spending, then capture market returns with the majority of assets that can now remain invested long enough to go through market cycles. This also allows for greater spending over time to account for inflation.
Ann has since moved into her new home and is spending more time with her grandkids. She has the peace of mind to enjoy life knowing that her investments will continue to provide supplemental income with minimal short-term risks.
If you’re interested in discussing how we might help you, please give us a call at (404) 941-2800, or reach out to us here.
The S&P 500 Index® gained 15% in the first half of 2024. However, this gain was not as healthy as it appeared on the surface. The top 10 stocks represent more of the S&P than they have at any time in the last 25 years. Without the top 10 stocks, the remaining 490 names were up only 4%. We’ve written about performance disparities in several of our quarterly commentaries – large vs. small companies, growth vs. value, domestic vs. international. These types of disparities can’t last forever – either the rest of the market catches up or the top of the market cools down. We were happy to see some of the former this month, but we still find ourselves in a very concentrated market.
Many newer investors begin with index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, which means the largest companies in the index determine most of its performance. Today, the stock prices of these largest companies tend to move together – they are driven by similar factors such as enthusiasm over AI. So, a decline in one big name often drags the others down. Younger investors should think about broadening their investments (beyond the largest U.S. companies) to gain exposure to additional factors that tend to reward investors over time. Career Builders have the power of time on their side. Investing early in your career is always a good idea.
In addition to the issue of market concentration, there are beginning signs of a cooling economy. We can’t say that a recession is around the corner. U.S. economic growth continues, inflation is crawling lower, and consumer spending on services (travel, etc.) is strong. However, unemployment claims are rising. Broad consumer spending and housing sales are both slowing. Disinflationary forces are beginning to be felt and the earnings growth needed to support stock prices could become challenged. We advise Established Professionals to keep safer investments for money needed in the shorter term. But it is important to keep a long-term perspective for your retirement savings. Fear of the short-term and the emotional investment responses it can cause can be a major detriment to meeting your goal.
In a market trading at 24x earnings, some healthy caution is in order, but we’re not reducing stock exposure at this point. Despite the market’s concentration risks, overall corporate earnings should strengthen the remainder of this year and beyond. Over long periods, markets trend higher, even with downturns and corrections along the way. Our portfolios are structured to withstand these downturns, with money needed in earlier retirement years invested most conservatively.
There is still the question of how long interest rates will remain elevated. We expect to see inflation moderate, and the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September. This should allow capital-intensive businesses and commercial real estate borrowers to refinance at lower rates – feeding economic activity and supporting those smaller-cap stocks that have underperformed the largest companies.
