Working with Integras Partners brings confidence to your financial journey. We help clients not worry so much about money, knowing that an expert is minding your investments.
Many individual investors let emotions and procrastination impact their decisions – hesitating to buy when prices fall and feeling eager to invest when markets are strong. A disciplined advisor provides steady, informed guidance to improve your financial outcomes.
August through October are historically the weakest and most volatile period for stocks and bonds alike. This year appears to be exceptional. Few expected the strength and resilience demonstrated by financial markets in the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index® posted a stellar 5.77% gain, posting year-to-date gains of 22%. Unlike recent years, the gain was not due to only a few large tech and communications stocks. We’re seeing overdue and much preferable broadening of stocks showing positive returns, and not just from the largest U.S. companies, but in small-caps and foreign markets as well.
The economy remains strong as the Fed begins its interest rate cutting cycle. Not too hot, and not too cold. Just like the story of a lost girl, everything is now “just right”. The Fed is done raising rates, employment strength continues, and economic growth is solid. These conditions amount to a “Goldilocks Scenario”, just about perfect to sustain corporate earnings growth and stock gains. Earnings growth should accrue to the value and small cap sectors, which until recently have lagged the large tech-dominated themes that were driving the market. At Integras Partners, we have been increasing our client allocations to these undervalued areas of the market for several months.
With lower relative prices, small-caps in particular should become even more attractive to investors, given that this Goldilocks scenario lasts for a while. We saw some confirmation of this in the third quarter as the lower P/E stocks began to outperform.
Integras Partners makes it easier to stay invested by actively managing client portfolios across our time-horizon strategies. We do this by keeping low-risk investments to provide for near term goals, allowing you more comfort with keeping longer-term investments intact through market swings. We can help you capture the long-term gains that volatile markets generate over time with less stress.
First, let’s look at the three types of accounts by their tax treatment.
Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts are funded with untaxed dollars (contributions are tax deductible, either through salary-deferral or on your tax return). However, future withdrawals are fully taxed as ordinary income. Examples include 401(k)s and traditional IRAs.
Taxable Accounts are funded with after-tax dollars. Dividends and gains from sales receive preferential tax rates. Because you’re paying taxes in the years that income or sales occur, withdrawals aren’t taxed. These are usually mutual fund and stock accounts.
Roth Account contributions are not tax deductible. However, they grow tax-free forever, and withdrawals are never taxed.
It’s best to spread money across these three account types while you are working. This will give you some flexibility to manage your taxes in retirement, which could help your money last longer. Having different types of accounts also provides options for early retirees.
Optimal investment and withdrawal strategies are different for everyone. Factors include age, tax brackets, employer plan features, and investable income. Powerful retirement planning is best done well in advance and then annually while taking distributions.
Retirement planning is one of the most important things that we do for clients. We would be happy to discuss your situation and how we might be of service.
Investment performance is not consistent and neither is retiree spending. Early retirees usually travel more and increase spending on hobbies. You may buy a car once every 5 years. Healthcare spending increases as we age. So, why should your portfolio focus on providing a fixed income? Integras Partners adapts portfolio allocations to market dynamics and your changing needs.
We match investments to fulfill projected cash flows. First, we set aside enough money to supplement social security, etc. for up to 30 months depending on our economic outlook. Taking little risk with immediate income provides comfort to spend. The beauty is most of your assets can capture long-term returns without short-term risk.
Integras Partners uses different strategies for graduated time-horizons, optimizing market risk for each timeframe. Every client has unique circumstances and a unique allocation. As a fee-only investment advisor, we don’t charge commissions and are always acting in your best interest.
Ann was facing her next chapter in life. She was recently widowed and had been considering retirement. She wanted to live near grandchildren and downsize her home.
Almost all of Ann’s assets were in a company retirement plan, advised by the plan’s financial advisor. Because they told the advisor that they “didn’t want to lose money”, Ann’s allocation was 55% short-term bonds and 45% cash. She was eligible for a widow’s Social Security benefit but was reluctant to retire, fearful that she didn’t have enough money.
Ann’s fear stemmed from her thinking that she needed to preserve the capital and live off the interest. Our philosophy is that retirees don’t need to preserve all their capital for their heirs, they just need to not run out of money. Ann actually had enough to retire but it was too conservatively invested to meet all of her spending needs throughout retirement. Our layered risk approach allows clients to feel more peace spending in retirement. This is because we take modest risk with investments for the next several years of spending, then capture market returns with the majority of assets that can now remain invested long enough to go through market cycles. This also allows for greater spending over time to account for inflation.
Ann has since moved into her new home and is spending more time with her grandkids. She has the peace of mind to enjoy life knowing that her investments will continue to provide supplemental income with minimal short-term risks.
If you’re interested in discussing how we might help you, please give us a call at (404) 941-2800, or reach out to us here.
The S&P 500 Index® gained 15% in the first half of 2024. However, this gain was not as healthy as it appeared on the surface. The top 10 stocks represent more of the S&P than they have at any time in the last 25 years. Without the top 10 stocks, the remaining 490 names were up only 4%. We’ve written about performance disparities in several of our quarterly commentaries – large vs. small companies, growth vs. value, domestic vs. international. These types of disparities can’t last forever – either the rest of the market catches up or the top of the market cools down. We were happy to see some of the former this month, but we still find ourselves in a very concentrated market.
Many newer investors begin with index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, which means the largest companies in the index determine most of its performance. Today, the stock prices of these largest companies tend to move together – they are driven by similar factors such as enthusiasm over AI. So, a decline in one big name often drags the others down. Younger investors should think about broadening their investments (beyond the largest U.S. companies) to gain exposure to additional factors that tend to reward investors over time. Career Builders have the power of time on their side. Investing early in your career is always a good idea.
In addition to the issue of market concentration, there are beginning signs of a cooling economy. We can’t say that a recession is around the corner. U.S. economic growth continues, inflation is crawling lower, and consumer spending on services (travel, etc.) is strong. However, unemployment claims are rising. Broad consumer spending and housing sales are both slowing. Disinflationary forces are beginning to be felt and the earnings growth needed to support stock prices could become challenged. We advise Established Professionals to keep safer investments for money needed in the shorter term. But it is important to keep a long-term perspective for your retirement savings. Fear of the short-term and the emotional investment responses it can cause can be a major detriment to meeting your goal.
In a market trading at 24x earnings, some healthy caution is in order, but we’re not reducing stock exposure at this point. Despite the market’s concentration risks, overall corporate earnings should strengthen the remainder of this year and beyond. Over long periods, markets trend higher, even with downturns and corrections along the way. Our portfolios are structured to withstand these downturns, with money needed in earlier retirement years invested most conservatively.
There is still the question of how long interest rates will remain elevated. We expect to see inflation moderate, and the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September. This should allow capital-intensive businesses and commercial real estate borrowers to refinance at lower rates – feeding economic activity and supporting those smaller-cap stocks that have underperformed the largest companies.
