Many families list paying for a child’s college education as an important financial goal, yet are unsure how much to save. College tuition costs have increased much faster in recent decades than any other household expense. J.P. Morgan recently projected that a four-year college education for a child born today will cost between $250k and $580k (ranging from public in-state tuition to private tuition). At the same time, financial aid awards have declined.
If you’re the parent of a newborn, the need for college planning may seem far in the future. But starting early can make a huge difference, even if making small monthly contributions.
A tax-advantaged savings vehicle has the potential to grow faster, as taxes aren’t taking a bite out of your investment returns.
In honor of National 529 Day on May 29th, here we highlight some facts about 529 accounts as a tax-advantaged vehicle for saving and investing for college.
You may get an income-tax break on contributions made to a 529 offered by the state you live in.
Money saved in a 529 has the potential to grow tax-free. Earnings on the money contributed are not taxed while in the 529 account, and money can be withdrawn free from federal income tax if used for qualified educational expenses, including an amount for room and board, and even an annual amount for K-12 education.
Most states also don’t impose state income tax on qualified withdrawals.
Taking money out of a 529 for non-educational expenses triggers tax and penalty only on the gains.
The beneficiary of a 529 account can be changed at any time to another family member or even to yourself. And there is no limit on how long a 529 account can exist – theoretically allowing an account to be passed down generations.
Family and friends can make contributions to your child’s 529, and if a non-parent is the account owner, the money in the 529 plan does not impact federal financial aid.
Subject to certain limitations, up to $35,000 of unused money in a 529 account can be rolled over to a Roth IRA in the beneficiary’s name, without any taxes or penalties related to taking money out for non-educational expenses.
1 J.P. Morgan Asset Management. This hypothetical example illustrates the future values at age 18 of different regular monthly investments for different time periods. Chart also assumes an annual investment return of 6%, compounded monthly. Investment losses could affect the relative tax-deferred investing advantage.
Most 401(k) and other retirement plans offer Target Date Funds (TDFs) as a default choice. They have become increasingly popular for a few good reasons but are rarely the best solution once your accounts achieve some size.
Let’s look at how they work and whether they are the most efficient choice for you.
TDFs are a great choice for beginners, or when you join a new employer plan. There is usually a lineup of funds targeting retirement dates in increments of five or so years. The concept is that the fund becomes increasingly conservative as the target date approaches, but that is a one-size-fits-all approach that can’t take your unique needs into account.
So, when are TDFs not the best investment choice?
To start, all of your money is invested with one fund family, instead of getting different approaches and methodologies. These funds are also usually invested across all asset classes and industries instead of those best suited to the current economic environment. They also evenly spread bond exposure instead of actively selecting the most appropriate bond sectors.
The biggest challenge with TDFs is that you don’t want all your investments too conservative as you enter retirement.
Yes, you want to make sure that you have some conservative assets to draw from during rough patches, but you still need growth during retirement to keep pace with inflation.
Here are a few things to consider:
· Do you actively rebalance your accounts?
· Does your plan have tools to evaluate your allocation vs. your goals and timeframes?
· Do you compare what you own against what’s available?
· Have you considered the advantages of an IRA for funds in an old employer plan?
· Are you layering investment risks to match your goal timeframes?
Reaching certain ages can be meaningful for financial planning. Age can affect contributions and withdrawal rules from retirement accounts, social security and pension options, and even taxes as many aspects of the tax code are linked to age.
Here are a few significant ages and planning considerations.
50: Eligible to make catch-up contributions to retirement accounts
55: Eligible for penalty exceptions for certain withdrawals from employer retirement accounts
59 ½: Eligible for retirement account withdrawals without early distribution penalty; Potentially eligible to move money from an employer plan to an IRA while still working
60: Beginning in 2025, additional catch-up contributions allowed
62: Earliest age to claim social security (at a reduced benefit amount)
65: Eligible for Medicare coverage (pay attention to enrollment period, which opens prior to 65th birthday); Increase in standard deduction
67: Full retirement age for social security for most people (depends on birth year)
70: Maximum social security benefit is reached
70 ½: Eligible to make Qualified Charitable Distributions
73 or 75: Required minimum distribution age from retirement accounts (depends on birth year)
Integras Partners provides financial planning and investment management to our clients. We have a deep relationship with our clients and understand their needs and goals. The planning process is integral to investment allocation decisions.
Changes to the FAFSA form and the formula for determining a family’s need for aid are changing, effective for the 2024-2025 school year. While all the changes are beyond the scope of this post, here we highlight two from a financial planning perspective.
Parent Income:
Contributions (pre-tax salary deferrals) to employer retirement accounts are no longer added back to parent income. This could be an additional incentive for parents with employer plans to max out contributions in years that the FAFSA looks at income. The FAFSA looks at the year two years prior to the beginning of the school year. For example, the 2024-2025 school year looks at 2022 income. Note that this change only applies to contributions that come straight from a salary reduction. Contributions to IRAs that are deductible on the tax return are still added back to parent income.
Grandparent Contributions: Up until now, while grandparent (or other non-parent) owned 529 accounts did not count towards a parent or student’s assets, withdrawals from said account counted as income to the student which had to be reported on the FAFSA. This could reduce the student’s aid eligibility. With the changes, withdrawals from a third-party owned 529 account will no longer count as student income. Grandparents can now maintain a 529 account for their grandchildren and distribute funds without impacting aid eligibility.
Because of these changes, the 2024-2025 form will not be available until December this year. You can stay up to date on announcements at https://studentaid.gov/, or through college financial aid office websites.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
This inflation cycle has played out much differently than past cycles.
The primary challenge in tackling stubborn inflation today is that the ultra-low rates of the past several years allowed companies to assume long-term debt very cheaply. The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) can only change the shortest-term interest rates, primarily impacting revolving and floating debt like credit cards and bank loans. The anticipated increase in corporate demand for financing at higher rates never materialized and delinquencies have been well-managed. So, the financial system has remained resilient and provided consumers with the confidence needed to continue spending.
Entering this cycle, consumers were also flush with spending power due to government stimulus, low fixed-rate mortgages, and lower-than-average debt service costs. So, Fed rate hikes haven’t impacted consumer behavior as much as in past cycles. Equally important, companies took advantage of robust demand by raising prices – further feeding inflation – and allowing them to protect or even increase profit margins while retaining their workforce. This self-reinforcing loop has allowed the economy to avoid recession and the stock market to recover faster than virtually every economic indicator – and our own fears – otherwise suggested.
Today we are in a momentum-led rally with the market assuming interest rate cuts later this year and a renaissance of capital spending on Artificial Intelligence over the next many years.
Momentum can carry a market a long way and we have enjoyed a period of market stability without suffering any meaningful pullback. This is rather surprising with 3 of the “Magnificent 7” having underperformed YTD, the Fed lowering projected rate cuts by half, and the past two months of inflation coming in higher than projected. The stock market has defied all but the rosiest of scenarios, with equity issuance (including IPO’s) at the highest level since 2021. This too shall change, but when it does it shouldn’t derail the bull market we are in. Volatility will return to test the conviction of investors. There will be some rougher sledding for us all at some point (it could be sooner rather than later).
Integras Partners strategies allow our clients’ stock exposure to be insulated by time. We don’t take meaningful market risk with money that our clients need soon. We don’t want them to change their spending decisions due to financial markets. Our objective has always been for our clients to enjoy life and leave the worrying to us.
2024 started with concern over stock prices, focused on the widening gulf between the price moves of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks and the rest of the market. Expectations for this gulf to close were rooted in the Fed’s actions – when they would begin cutting interest rates and how many cuts would occur in 2024.
At the end of 2023, the bond market had priced in nearly a 100% chance that rate cuts would begin in March.
Our expectation has been that cuts were not likely to begin until this summer. Given the most recent inflation data, and conceivably similar readings to come, it would now not be surprising to see no cuts until even deeper into the year, if at all.
The 1st quarter saw the S&P 500 rally 10% while almost totally discounting Fed rate cuts this year. This could be the market seeing lower rates and slowing inflation ahead, however, inflation is proving to be more difficult to tame towards the Fed’s 2% target. Sticky inflation may prove to be the Achilles heel of the current advance.
We also wrote in our Q4 2023 commentary that the focus of the market would soon turn from interest rates to the market fundamentals of earnings and valuation. This has started coming to fruition, but complicating this calculus is the momentum of any company involved with artificial intelligence, and market expectations for revenues and earnings of all companies due to AI’s influence. While in early days, “AI” has overtaken the narrative of the Fed needing to lower interest rates, and the speculative nature of investors has re-emerged. Today we are in a momentum-led rally with the market assuming rate cuts later this year and a renaissance of capital spending on AI over the next many years.
While the advance has its roots firmly embedded in the AI excitement, other green shoots are becoming visible as well.
Valuations are very attractive in small caps and international stocks, and mutual fund flows are reflecting an increased appetite for value vs. momentum. These are signs of a healthy market – ones that should be embraced, although they will likely be tested.
While not our base case, there is a chance that with financial conditions having eased so much already, a renewed upswing in inflationary forces are taking root. Should the economy remain strong, coupled with government stimulus funds (JOBS Act, Infrastructure, Inflation Reduction Act, etc.) flowing into the economy and consumers continuing to spend, inflation may not recede to the Fed’s 2% goal. Perhaps worse, the Fed may start easing only to have to pivot and raise rates again. These are risks we are mindful of and recognize that regardless of how rosy a set of projections may look now, there are several catalysts that could change investor sentiment in a meaningful way.
We continue monitoring all these factors, watching developments, and adjusting our strategies and client portfolios as necessary. Where there is disruption and change, there is often opportunity.
Karen and Michael were feeling stressed about money and were referred to us for guidance. In our initial conversation, we learned that Karen has a corporate job and Michael is a freelancer. They have significant bank savings to compensate for Michael’s irregular income. They feel behind in saving for retirement and their kids’ educations. They are considering selling their first home to invest the proceeds, rather than continue renting it.
Integras Analysis
From a comprehensive review of their finances, we determined there was more than enough savings to offset Michael’s unpredictable income. Instead, they can direct some excess cash and income towards getting their investment goals on track.
Recommendations
· Because they moved out less than 3 years ago, they can sell their rental house tax-free and reinvest the proceeds towards meeting their goals.
· Since their savings are sufficient, Karen can increase contributions to her 401(k) plan which will help build retirement investments. Because they were paying taxes on the money before saving it, she can put even more pre-tax money into her 401(k).
· Establish a Roth IRA for Michael, which will provide tax-free distributions in retirement.
· Establish 529 education savings accounts for the kids and make monthly contributions. 529s are a great opportunity to grow money tax-free for education.
· Pay off high-interest rate car loans.
· Put the remaining home proceeds into our Income and Dividend Growth strategies. Dividends and gains in non-retirement accounts are taxed at lower rates and will complement taxable retirement distributions later.
Karen and Michael now have greater peace spending today, knowing that they are following a plan for funding their future goals!
An IRA (Individual Retirement Account) is a great opportunity for younger investors to save for retirement. IRAs come in two flavors, Traditional and Roth, the main difference being when taxes apply.
While traditional IRA contributions may provide a current year tax deduction, Roth IRAs contributions are not deductible, but the investments grow tax free forever. Traditional IRA distributions will always be taxed as ordinary income.
You must have earned income to contribute to any IRA (compensation received from working), and there is a maximum contribution amount set by the IRS each year ($7,000 for 2024).
Considerations when choosing between IRA types:
Age: The younger you are, the more sense it makes to contribute to a Roth IRA. The compounding tax-free growth is likely to outweigh the value of the up-front tax deduction.
Income: At higher income levels the ability to contribute to any IRAs phase out. However, your employer 401(k) plan may include a Roth option.
Deductibility: If you are covered by an employer retirement plan, you’re likely not eligible to make deductible IRA contributions. However, you may still be able to contribute to a Roth IRA.
Flexibility: With limited exceptions, withdrawals from an IRA before age 59 ½ are subject to a 10% penalty. Roth IRAs offer more flexibility, allowing for penalty-free withdrawals of contributions (but not earnings) after the account is at least 5 years old.
Laser-focus on inflation was the key driver of both interest rates and market performance over the past two years.
Inflation continues retreating towards the targeted 2% range, which should largely be achieved around mid-year. We expect the Fed will begin lowering rates during the summer. While the bond market has priced-in 6 rate cuts for the year, beginning as early as March, we believe it will be a more modest and later cutting cycle. From there, the narrative should shift from inflation and interest rates back to the fundamentals of economic growth and earnings. There is still a risk that the economy could pick up steam and inflation return to haunt us once again, a la 1980. Nor are we out of the woods of potential economic weakness. But we see light at the end of the tunnel.
We remain optimistic about the long-awaited resurgence of small-cap, value, and international stocks closing the performance gap versus U.S. large-cap growth over the ensuing economic cycle.
The old maxim of ‘no tree grows to the sky’ will ultimately prevail. We find it unlikely that valuations of the “Magnificent 7” can continue to rise unabated. Valuation is a fundamental driver of long-term performance, and small caps and international markets remain undervalued relative to history.
As we expect a return to economic fundamentals over 2024, much depends on the economic growth and labor productivity needed for earnings to meet or exceed expectations. Should the economy slow, stock markets will have a hard time producing meaningful gains. While not our base case, we will remain mindful of the many economic indicators still flashing red.
We understand it is an election year. As November approaches, we typically see markets stagnate or slightly decline as the uncertainty and anticipation mounts. However, history tells us that regardless of who wins, there is negligible impact on financial markets in aggregate. In the end, regardless of whether your favored party wins or loses, there is no advantage in changing investment policy.
The normalization of interest rates is an uncertain path and forecasting economic growth is even more difficult. As investment themes change throughout the year, we will be looking for areas where valuation and earnings potential appear strongest – a disciplined approach that has served us well long-term.
What remains paramount is our desire to always take care of our clients’ current investment needs, while working towards achieving long-term investment goals.
With our time horizon investment process, we have successfully sheltered near-term spending needs from market disruptions, giving the longer-term assets the time needed to allow these disruptions to play out. Our long-held mantra of “go live life, we’ve got your back” has worked throughout this period of upheaval and we will be making sure that continues.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
While the S&P 500 rose 26% at the headline level, it was almost entirely due to just seven “magnificent” tech stocks. The remaining 493 names contributed very little – on average up just 4%. This concentrated market condition continued through October when we finally enjoyed broadening market participation. Small cap stocks began a long-awaited turn-around with a two-month advance of 16%. The broad International Index rose 18%. Both are areas we overweighted in 2023 due to their relative valuations. While we think these sectors will continue to waffle back and forth for several months (as January has already shown), we expect a further broadening of market performance once we get some assurance on timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Interest rates have been the story since early 2022 and October showed what happens when our uncontrolled fiscal deficit intersects with decreasing foreign demand for Treasuries. The 10-year Bond went from a yield of 3.3% in May to 5% in October as auctions witnessed a pullback in foreign investors. This will become a larger theme in the future should our deficit growth continue unabated. Nevertheless, as inflation readings continued to decrease during the Fall and the market began anticipating rate cuts, the yield on the 10-year treasury ended 2023 at 3.9%.
We wrote last quarter that we were cautiously optimistic.
But the year ended better than, even we, anticipated. Surprising employment strength and increasing home prices have remained dominant forces keeping the U.S. from entering recession. As consumers spend down COVID savings, they remain heartened by job stability, so overall spending has remained quite strong. Strong home values have also buoyed consumer confidence. This is very different from the historical pattern (although welcome and needed). In a normal economic contraction, people lose jobs and must sell homes, increasing housing inventories which bring prices down. In this rate cycle over 90% of existing homes carried mortgages under 4%. People were not forced to sell and have no desire to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. Inventory remains tight while demand stays solid, so prices have risen. The banking system remains resilient, financial conditions have eased, and financial market performance followed.
Heading into 2024, we see light at the end of the tunnel, while recognizing the risks that are still present.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
