August through October are historically the weakest and most volatile period for stocks and bonds alike. This year appears to be exceptional. Few expected the strength and resilience demonstrated by financial markets in the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index® posted a stellar 5.77% gain, posting year-to-date gains of 22%. Unlike recent years, the gain was not due to only a few large tech and communications stocks. We’re seeing overdue and much preferable broadening of stocks showing positive returns, and not just from the largest U.S. companies, but in small-caps and foreign markets as well.
The economy remains strong as the Fed begins its interest rate cutting cycle. Not too hot, and not too cold. Just like the story of a lost girl, everything is now “just right”. The Fed is done raising rates, employment strength continues, and economic growth is solid. These conditions amount to a “Goldilocks Scenario”, just about perfect to sustain corporate earnings growth and stock gains. Earnings growth should accrue to the value and small cap sectors, which until recently have lagged the large tech-dominated themes that were driving the market. At Integras Partners, we have been increasing our client allocations to these undervalued areas of the market for several months.
With lower relative prices, small-caps in particular should become even more attractive to investors, given that this Goldilocks scenario lasts for a while. We saw some confirmation of this in the third quarter as the lower P/E stocks began to outperform.
Integras Partners makes it easier to stay invested by actively managing client portfolios across our time-horizon strategies. We do this by keeping low-risk investments to provide for near term goals, allowing you more comfort with keeping longer-term investments intact through market swings. We can help you capture the long-term gains that volatile markets generate over time with less stress.
The S&P 500 Index® gained 15% in the first half of 2024. However, this gain was not as healthy as it appeared on the surface. The top 10 stocks represent more of the S&P than they have at any time in the last 25 years. Without the top 10 stocks, the remaining 490 names were up only 4%. We’ve written about performance disparities in several of our quarterly commentaries – large vs. small companies, growth vs. value, domestic vs. international. These types of disparities can’t last forever – either the rest of the market catches up or the top of the market cools down. We were happy to see some of the former this month, but we still find ourselves in a very concentrated market.
Many newer investors begin with index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, which means the largest companies in the index determine most of its performance. Today, the stock prices of these largest companies tend to move together – they are driven by similar factors such as enthusiasm over AI. So, a decline in one big name often drags the others down. Career Builders should think about broadening their investments (beyond the largest U.S. companies) to gain exposure to additional factors that tend to reward investors over time. Career Builders have the power of time on their side. Investing early in your career is always a good idea.
In addition to the issue of market concentration, there are beginning signs of a cooling economy. We can’t say that a recession is around the corner. U.S. economic growth continues, inflation is crawling lower, and consumer spending on services (travel, etc.) is strong. However, unemployment claims are rising. Broad consumer spending and housing sales are both slowing. Disinflationary forces are beginning to be felt and the earnings growth needed to support stock prices could become challenged. We advise Established Professionals to keep safer investments for money needed in the shorter term. But it is important to keep a long-term perspective for your retirement savings. Fear of the short-term and the emotional investment responses it can cause can be a major detriment to meeting your goal.
In a market trading at 24x earnings, some healthy caution is in order, but we’re not reducing stock exposure at this point. Despite the market’s concentration risks, overall corporate earnings should strengthen the remainder of this year and beyond. Over long periods, markets trend higher, even with downturns and corrections along the way. Our portfolios are structured to withstand these downturns, with money needed in earlier retirement years invested most conservatively.
There is still the question of how long interest rates will remain elevated. We expect to see inflation moderate, and the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September. This should allow capital-intensive businesses and commercial real estate borrowers to refinance at lower rates – feeding economic activity and supporting those smaller-cap stocks that have underperformed the largest companies.
This inflation cycle has played out much differently than past cycles.
The primary challenge in tackling stubborn inflation today is that the ultra-low rates of the past several years allowed companies to assume long-term debt very cheaply. The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) can only change the shortest-term interest rates, primarily impacting revolving and floating debt like credit cards and bank loans. The anticipated increase in corporate demand for financing at higher rates never materialized and delinquencies have been well-managed. So, the financial system has remained resilient and provided consumers with the confidence needed to continue spending.
Entering this cycle, consumers were also flush with spending power due to government stimulus, low fixed-rate mortgages, and lower-than-average debt service costs. So, Fed rate hikes haven’t impacted consumer behavior as much as in past cycles. Equally important, companies took advantage of robust demand by raising prices – further feeding inflation – and allowing them to protect or even increase profit margins while retaining their workforce. This self-reinforcing loop has allowed the economy to avoid recession and the stock market to recover faster than virtually every economic indicator – and our own fears – otherwise suggested.
Today we are in a momentum-led rally with the market assuming interest rate cuts later this year and a renaissance of capital spending on Artificial Intelligence over the next many years.
Momentum can carry a market a long way and we have enjoyed a period of market stability without suffering any meaningful pullback. This is rather surprising with 3 of the “Magnificent 7” having underperformed YTD, the Fed lowering projected rate cuts by half, and the past two months of inflation coming in higher than projected. The stock market has defied all but the rosiest of scenarios, with equity issuance (including IPO’s) at the highest level since 2021. This too shall change, but when it does it shouldn’t derail the bull market we are in. Volatility will return to test the conviction of investors. There will be some rougher sledding for us all at some point (it could be sooner rather than later).
Integras Partners strategies allow our clients’ stock exposure to be insulated by time. We don’t take meaningful market risk with money that our clients need soon. We don’t want them to change their spending decisions due to financial markets. Our objective has always been for our clients to enjoy life and leave the worrying to us.
2024 started with concern over stock prices, focused on the widening gulf between the price moves of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks and the rest of the market. Expectations for this gulf to close were rooted in the Fed’s actions – when they would begin cutting interest rates and how many cuts would occur in 2024.
At the end of 2023, the bond market had priced in nearly a 100% chance that rate cuts would begin in March.
Our expectation has been that cuts were not likely to begin until this summer. Given the most recent inflation data, and conceivably similar readings to come, it would now not be surprising to see no cuts until even deeper into the year, if at all.
The 1st quarter saw the S&P 500 rally 10% while almost totally discounting Fed rate cuts this year. This could be the market seeing lower rates and slowing inflation ahead, however, inflation is proving to be more difficult to tame towards the Fed’s 2% target. Sticky inflation may prove to be the Achilles heel of the current advance.
We also wrote in our Q4 2023 commentary that the focus of the market would soon turn from interest rates to the market fundamentals of earnings and valuation. This has started coming to fruition, but complicating this calculus is the momentum of any company involved with artificial intelligence, and market expectations for revenues and earnings of all companies due to AI’s influence. While in early days, “AI” has overtaken the narrative of the Fed needing to lower interest rates, and the speculative nature of investors has re-emerged. Today we are in a momentum-led rally with the market assuming rate cuts later this year and a renaissance of capital spending on AI over the next many years.
While the advance has its roots firmly embedded in the AI excitement, other green shoots are becoming visible as well.
Valuations are very attractive in small caps and international stocks, and mutual fund flows are reflecting an increased appetite for value vs. momentum. These are signs of a healthy market – ones that should be embraced, although they will likely be tested.
While not our base case, there is a chance that with financial conditions having eased so much already, a renewed upswing in inflationary forces are taking root. Should the economy remain strong, coupled with government stimulus funds (JOBS Act, Infrastructure, Inflation Reduction Act, etc.) flowing into the economy and consumers continuing to spend, inflation may not recede to the Fed’s 2% goal. Perhaps worse, the Fed may start easing only to have to pivot and raise rates again. These are risks we are mindful of and recognize that regardless of how rosy a set of projections may look now, there are several catalysts that could change investor sentiment in a meaningful way.
We continue monitoring all these factors, watching developments, and adjusting our strategies and client portfolios as necessary. Where there is disruption and change, there is often opportunity.
Laser-focus on inflation was the key driver of both interest rates and market performance over the past two years.
Inflation continues retreating towards the targeted 2% range, which should largely be achieved around mid-year. We expect the Fed will begin lowering rates during the summer. While the bond market has priced-in 6 rate cuts for the year, beginning as early as March, we believe it will be a more modest and later cutting cycle. From there, the narrative should shift from inflation and interest rates back to the fundamentals of economic growth and earnings. There is still a risk that the economy could pick up steam and inflation return to haunt us once again, a la 1980. Nor are we out of the woods of potential economic weakness. But we see light at the end of the tunnel.
We remain optimistic about the long-awaited resurgence of small-cap, value, and international stocks closing the performance gap versus U.S. large-cap growth over the ensuing economic cycle.
The old maxim of ‘no tree grows to the sky’ will ultimately prevail. We find it unlikely that valuations of the “Magnificent 7” can continue to rise unabated. Valuation is a fundamental driver of long-term performance, and small caps and international markets remain undervalued relative to history.
As we expect a return to economic fundamentals over 2024, much depends on the economic growth and labor productivity needed for earnings to meet or exceed expectations. Should the economy slow, stock markets will have a hard time producing meaningful gains. While not our base case, we will remain mindful of the many economic indicators still flashing red.
We understand it is an election year. As November approaches, we typically see markets stagnate or slightly decline as the uncertainty and anticipation mounts. However, history tells us that regardless of who wins, there is negligible impact on financial markets in aggregate. In the end, regardless of whether your favored party wins or loses, there is no advantage in changing investment policy.
The normalization of interest rates is an uncertain path and forecasting economic growth is even more difficult. As investment themes change throughout the year, we will be looking for areas where valuation and earnings potential appear strongest – a disciplined approach that has served us well long-term.
What remains paramount is our desire to always take care of our clients’ current investment needs, while working towards achieving long-term investment goals.
With our time horizon investment process, we have successfully sheltered near-term spending needs from market disruptions, giving the longer-term assets the time needed to allow these disruptions to play out. Our long-held mantra of “go live life, we’ve got your back” has worked throughout this period of upheaval and we will be making sure that continues.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
While the S&P 500 rose 26% at the headline level, it was almost entirely due to just seven “magnificent” tech stocks. The remaining 493 names contributed very little – on average up just 4%. This concentrated market condition continued through October when we finally enjoyed broadening market participation. Small cap stocks began a long-awaited turn-around with a two-month advance of 16%. The broad International Index rose 18%. Both are areas we overweighted in 2023 due to their relative valuations. While we think these sectors will continue to waffle back and forth for several months (as January has already shown), we expect a further broadening of market performance once we get some assurance on timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Interest rates have been the story since early 2022 and October showed what happens when our uncontrolled fiscal deficit intersects with decreasing foreign demand for Treasuries. The 10-year Bond went from a yield of 3.3% in May to 5% in October as auctions witnessed a pullback in foreign investors. This will become a larger theme in the future should our deficit growth continue unabated. Nevertheless, as inflation readings continued to decrease during the Fall and the market began anticipating rate cuts, the yield on the 10-year treasury ended 2023 at 3.9%.
We wrote last quarter that we were cautiously optimistic.
But the year ended better than, even we, anticipated. Surprising employment strength and increasing home prices have remained dominant forces keeping the U.S. from entering recession. As consumers spend down COVID savings, they remain heartened by job stability, so overall spending has remained quite strong. Strong home values have also buoyed consumer confidence. This is very different from the historical pattern (although welcome and needed). In a normal economic contraction, people lose jobs and must sell homes, increasing housing inventories which bring prices down. In this rate cycle over 90% of existing homes carried mortgages under 4%. People were not forced to sell and have no desire to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. Inventory remains tight while demand stays solid, so prices have risen. The banking system remains resilient, financial conditions have eased, and financial market performance followed.
Heading into 2024, we see light at the end of the tunnel, while recognizing the risks that are still present.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
