Stock prices and corporate earning expectations have disconnected. Now, no price is too high to pay for access to this new AI playing field. The mega cap stocks primarily involved in the AI buildout trade at a Price to Earning (P/E) ratio of 35x. This means you’re paying for the next 35 years of expected earnings! The remaining stocks trade at a more reasonable 21x, yet investors’ appetite for risk has created a blinder to them. Investors seem focused on increasing future growth potential, and at any price.
Once something comes along to challenge the thesis behind all this spending on the buildout, and one of the large players pulls back, risk appetite will cease and these valuations will no longer be supported. Then we see how many billions of dollars have been wasted betting on A.I. and how many companies tied to that model will die. Once the music stops you don’t want to be left standing with high concentrations of these assets. Everyone playing musical chairs will look for a place to land. This is how manias end. No one knows when this will happen. But we know it ultimately will.
The good news is that markets are heading into their most resilient and consistent quarter for returns.
For almost the last 100 years, the S&P 500 has risen 74% of the time in the fourth quarter. Additionally, when the market is positive for the first nine months, it has increased 88% of the time. So, seasonality is on your side for the remainder of the year.
The resiliency of the US consumer is also a big positive. If employment numbers hold, consumers should be able to absorb the coming pass-thru of tariff costs. These higher prices also set the stage for a resurgence of inflation.
Speaking of tariffs (and the lack of inflation associated with them to date), companies have thus far absorbed most of the impact. Many front-loaded inventories trying to sidestep tariffs. Going forward as inventories need to be restocked, retail prices will go up. If the Federal Reserve continues lowering interest rates into an inflationary cycle, inflation numbers could climb in the coming quarters.
The bottom line is that we are in an A.I. driven asset bubble which may continue for a few more quarters, driving stock prices and associated risks up even further.
If the U.S. consumer is willing to pay more of the tariff costs that companies will be passing along, we will see inflation increase. The Fed may be forced to change course at some point with interest rate increases as opposed to decreases. The entire investment backdrop would then change, along with economic activity and economic growth.
There is still time and seasonality on our side before these issues may come to the surface, causing a reset of just how much risk investors tolerate. The sand is running out of the bottle while the music keeps playing. For now, keep listening while keeping an ever-present eye to anything that could be a threat to your well-being.
We are acutely aware of where markets stand and what is most likely ahead once the music stops. Significant investor losses often come from sitting still while frozen by what’s happening. If you would like some feedback and recommendations on your financial situation, contact us.
In April, the market had a near-death tariff experience, immediately followed by one of the fastest recoveries ever. You may have expected that the 3rd quarter would be fairly benign and allow everyone some time to breathe. Not so! Investors are totally embracing the Artificial Intelligence theme, buying tech stocks in a race for risk unlike anything we have seen since the “meme stock” craze in 2021.
For the 3rd quarter, the S&P 500 Index® (dominated by the nine >$1 trillion market cap companies) was up 8%. Because this index is “market cap-weighted”, the biggest companies have the largest impact. The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 was only up 4.8%. Mega cap dominance (of both the index and investor enthusiasm) continues. The biggest surprise for the quarter was the performance of the lower quality assets, particularly small caps. Represented by the broad Russell 2000 index (where roughly 40% of its components lose money), this group gained 12%. This move only brings 2025 performance up to 10%, illustrating how risk appetites have broadened to areas that had previously been shunned. The narrower S&P 600 small cap index, where most companies actually do have earnings is up only 6% all year.
So, the quality of a company has lost its role in market behavior and we aren’t seeing any changes so far in October. The bright spots are areas that we have highlighted several times in the past. International markets continue to perform very well in a long awaited catch-up to US markets. The EAFE index was up 4% in Q3 and is now up 25% YTD. Emerging markets did even better with 10% in the quarter and 29% for the year. At Integras Partners, we have maintained our exposure to the international sector for several years knowing that ultimately value gets discovered.
We are now clearly in a time very reminiscent of 1999-2000. This is a classic corporate spending race to dominate a new technology breakthrough. Trillions will be spent building out the assets necessary to produce an A.I. product that thus far no one has been able to profit from. Many parallels with the Dot-Bomb era have arisen, but one thing remains far different – the large companies primarily involved actually earn money this time. Those earnings are from businesses separate from where they are investing it, but they do have earnings to spend on A.I. Therefore, this cycle could last longer but one thing will remain the same. It will end badly.
There is still time and what is usually a strong quarter on our side before tariff risks and inflation come to the surface. Significant Investor losses often come from sitting still while frozen by what’s happening. If you would like some feedback and recommendations on your financial situation, contact us.
If you sell an investment property like a rental home or other piece of commercial real estate, you will owe taxes on the gain. Between capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, a taxpayer could pay more than 1/3 of their gain in taxes.
Many investors turn to DST programs to complete a tax-deferred exchange (known as a 1031 exchange). DST programs offer several advantages over finding individual replacement properties.
Some DST programs have an additional feature known as an UPREIT option. In these, an investor may have their DST interests subsequently acquired by a REIT on a tax-deferred basis, in exchange for Operating Partnership units (OP units).
This UPREIT option can provide additional benefits, such as:
Further diversification: A DST may own a handful of properties, while a REIT may own hundreds
Increased income: OP units often have a higher yield than DST interests
No need for future exchanges: An UPREIT transaction ends the ability to complete future 1031 exchanges, but maintains the investor’s tax-deferred status indefinitely (subject to some limitations).
Ability to control the timing of taxes: Deferred tax is not due until OP units are redeemed. An investor can choose if and when to request a redemption.
Liquidity for heirs: Heirs can choose to redeem OP units at stepped up basis. DST interests do not usually provide liquidity to heirs until the properties in the DST are sold.
The 1031 exchange rules are complex. It is advisable to speak with a tax professional and a financial advisor well before an investment property is sold.
Meet Megan. She’s in her early 30s, single, and fairly stable in her career, although she may change employers.
Like most younger professionals we work with, Megan was unsure how to get started. She had a couple of previous company retirement accounts and a Roth IRA she started years ago. She had accumulated a sizable bank account but was unsure how to invest, especially after seeing her parents experience mixed results.
Integras Analysis
Our conversations determined that she was living within her means, but she needed a cash safety net (for unexpected events such as car repairs or job loss). She hopes one day to start a family and own a home. She contributes to her 401(k) but was unsure if she was contributing enough.
Recommendations
Put some of the excess cash in her bank account into a high-yield savings account for emergency / unexpected expenses
Allocate her remaining excess cash into two strategic accounts. First, a moderate account seeking 4% to 5% returns for goals in the next 3-5 years, such as purchasing a home. Then, a growth account seeking appreciation for longer-term goals before retirement age.
A modest increase to her 401(k), to better pave the path to future retirement. A 2% increase for someone earning $100K typically only lowers bi-weekly take-home pay by about $50.
Open a Roth IRA
Consolidate her former company plans to ensure she’s not losing track of these investments.
Results
With her “safety net” in place, Megan started an automatic bank draft of $100/month to her moderate account and is comfortable making monthly contributions to the Roth IRA. Besides tax-free growth, once you’ve owned a Roth for five years you can withdraw up to $10,000 without penalty towards a first-time home purchase! We consolidated her former company plans and helped allocate her current employer’s 401(k). Now, Megan’s retirement investments complement each other, and she has a track to meet her future retirement goal.
Inflation is one of the major risks to retirement. We’re all living longer, and the things we spend more of our money on in our older years (healthcare, senior housing) have the biggest price increases.
The recent inflationary environment is fresh in everyone’s mind, but even 2% inflation (the Fed’s current goal) is a risk to a retiree’s spending power over time. In a simple example, a $100,000 lifestyle when you initially retire would cost you over $148,000 in 20 years, assuming prices rose at a constant rate of 2%.
Inflation can’t be controlled, but evaluating it within your retirement plan can help identify ways to mitigate it. Here are a few ways inflation can be considered.
Investment Allocation: Investing too conservatively may mean that your investments won’t meet your spending needs long term. You want to make sure that you have enough invested for growth to keep up with inflation. This is not a static allocation. Integras Partners’ investment strategies are designed to align with anticipated inflation-adjusted spending needs over time.
Investment Selection: Investment selection within your portfolio is also a consideration. For example, there are types of investments that typically keep ahead of inflation, such as companies with a history of dividend growth and real estate.
Social Security Claiming Strategies: Delaying social security can give you higher lifetime benefits, but factors such as health and longevity must also be considered.
Strategies to Offset Healthcare Costs: Healthcare costs can be significant at older ages, and costs inflate at higher rates than other spending categories. Evaluate long-term care insurance or how to best make use of an HSA.
Withdrawal Strategies: Withdrawing too much in early retirement years, or having to sell assets to meet withdrawals during down markets are major risks to the longevity of a portfolio. Dedicate a portion of investments to near-term spending needs using relatively conservative, liquid investments. Drawing from that portion of the portfolio allows longer-term assets to remain invested for growth (to keep up with inflation), with the time needed to recover from market downturns.
The Fed remains reluctant to lower short-term interest rates, as the inflation outlook heads back up towards 3%. Slowing economic growth and sustained employment weakness would prompt rate cuts.
The technical chart below reflects that the bond market is expecting slower economic growth. Projections are for two interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
Equity markets are signaling the opposite, by valuing cyclical stocks higher than defensive stocks. This happens when the broad market expects an acceleration of economic growth (which leads to higher rates).
Both cannot be right. Either the bond market is wrong and interest rates will move higher, or the stock market is wrong and will see declines. No one knows which it will be. This is the dilemma investors face when positioning their portfolios.
At Integras Partners, we recently increased our more defensive allocations. Markets are shrugging off multiple concerning trends. There are downside risks in a cautious U.S. consumer, slowing economic growth, and weaker employment data not yet reflected in market valuations.
We have concentrated our growth allocations in those sectors less likely to be negatively impacted – sectors where strong secular growth trends remain in place.
It is our nature to err on the side of caution. Chasing returns is not our primary objective. We are motivated every day to ensure that our clients are positioned to enjoy their lifestyle, without worrying about what’s going on short-term in the markets.
If this approach sounds like a good fit for you, please reach out to learn how we can help!
