Inflation is one of the major risks to retirement. We’re all living longer, and the things we spend more of our money on in our older years (healthcare, senior housing) have the biggest price increases.
The recent inflationary environment is fresh in everyone’s mind, but even 2% inflation (the Fed’s current goal) is a risk to a retiree’s spending power over time. In a simple example, a $100,000 lifestyle when you initially retire would cost you over $148,000 in 20 years, assuming prices rose at a constant rate of 2%.
Inflation can’t be controlled, but evaluating it within your retirement plan can help identify ways to mitigate it. Here are a few ways inflation can be considered.
Investment Allocation: Investing too conservatively may mean that your investments won’t meet your spending needs long term. You want to make sure that you have enough invested for growth to keep up with inflation. This is not a static allocation. Integras Partners’ investment strategies are designed to align with anticipated inflation-adjusted spending needs over time.
Investment Selection: Investment selection within your portfolio is also a consideration. For example, there are types of investments that typically keep ahead of inflation, such as companies with a history of dividend growth and real estate.
Social Security Claiming Strategies: Delaying social security can give you higher lifetime benefits, but factors such as health and longevity must also be considered.
Strategies to Offset Healthcare Costs: Healthcare costs can be significant at older ages, and costs inflate at higher rates than other spending categories. Evaluate long-term care insurance or how to best make use of an HSA.
Withdrawal Strategies: Withdrawing too much in early retirement years, or having to sell assets to meet withdrawals during down markets are major risks to the longevity of a portfolio. We dedicate a portion of investments to near-term spending needs (spending expected to occur within 2-3 years) using relatively conservative, liquid investments. Drawing from that portion of the portfolio allows longer-term assets to remain invested for growth, with the time needed to recover from market downturns.
Changes to the FAFSA form and the formula for determining a family’s need for aid are changing, effective for the 2024-2025 school year. While all the changes are beyond the scope of this post, here we highlight two from a financial planning perspective.
Parent Income:
Contributions (pre-tax salary deferrals) to employer retirement accounts are no longer added back to parent income. This could be an additional incentive for parents with employer plans to max out contributions in years that the FAFSA looks at income. The FAFSA looks at the year two years prior to the beginning of the school year. For example, the 2024-2025 school year looks at 2022 income. Note that this change only applies to contributions that come straight from a salary reduction. Contributions to IRAs that are deductible on the tax return are still added back to parent income.
Grandparent Contributions: Up until now, while grandparent (or other non-parent) owned 529 accounts did not count towards a parent or student’s assets, withdrawals from said account counted as income to the student which had to be reported on the FAFSA. This could reduce the student’s aid eligibility. With the changes, withdrawals from a third-party owned 529 account will no longer count as student income. Grandparents can now maintain a 529 account for their grandchildren and distribute funds without impacting aid eligibility.
Because of these changes, the 2024-2025 form will not be available until December this year. You can stay up to date on announcements at https://studentaid.gov/, or through college financial aid office websites.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
Laser-focus on inflation was the key driver of both interest rates and market performance over the past two years.
Inflation continues retreating towards the targeted 2% range, which should largely be achieved around mid-year. We expect the Fed will begin lowering rates during the summer. While the bond market has priced-in 6 rate cuts for the year, beginning as early as March, we believe it will be a more modest and later cutting cycle. From there, the narrative should shift from inflation and interest rates back to the fundamentals of economic growth and earnings. There is still a risk that the economy could pick up steam and inflation return to haunt us once again, a la 1980. Nor are we out of the woods of potential economic weakness. But we see light at the end of the tunnel.
We remain optimistic about the long-awaited resurgence of small-cap, value, and international stocks closing the performance gap versus U.S. large-cap growth over the ensuing economic cycle.
The old maxim of ‘no tree grows to the sky’ will ultimately prevail. We find it unlikely that valuations of the “Magnificent 7” can continue to rise unabated. Valuation is a fundamental driver of long-term performance, and small caps and international markets remain undervalued relative to history.
As we expect a return to economic fundamentals over 2024, much depends on the economic growth and labor productivity needed for earnings to meet or exceed expectations. Should the economy slow, stock markets will have a hard time producing meaningful gains. While not our base case, we will remain mindful of the many economic indicators still flashing red.
We understand it is an election year. As November approaches, we typically see markets stagnate or slightly decline as the uncertainty and anticipation mounts. However, history tells us that regardless of who wins, there is negligible impact on financial markets in aggregate. In the end, regardless of whether your favored party wins or loses, there is no advantage in changing investment policy.
The normalization of interest rates is an uncertain path and forecasting economic growth is even more difficult. As investment themes change throughout the year, we will be looking for areas where valuation and earnings potential appear strongest – a disciplined approach that has served us well long-term.
What remains paramount is our desire to always take care of our clients’ current investment needs, while working towards achieving long-term investment goals.
With our time horizon investment process, we have successfully sheltered near-term spending needs from market disruptions, giving the longer-term assets the time needed to allow these disruptions to play out. Our long-held mantra of “go live life, we’ve got your back” has worked throughout this period of upheaval and we will be making sure that continues.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
While the S&P 500 rose 26% at the headline level, it was almost entirely due to just seven “magnificent” tech stocks. The remaining 493 names contributed very little – on average up just 4%. This concentrated market condition continued through October when we finally enjoyed broadening market participation. Small cap stocks began a long-awaited turn-around with a two-month advance of 16%. The broad International Index rose 18%. Both are areas we overweighted in 2023 due to their relative valuations. While we think these sectors will continue to waffle back and forth for several months (as January has already shown), we expect a further broadening of market performance once we get some assurance on timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Interest rates have been the story since early 2022 and October showed what happens when our uncontrolled fiscal deficit intersects with decreasing foreign demand for Treasuries. The 10-year Bond went from a yield of 3.3% in May to 5% in October as auctions witnessed a pullback in foreign investors. This will become a larger theme in the future should our deficit growth continue unabated. Nevertheless, as inflation readings continued to decrease during the Fall and the market began anticipating rate cuts, the yield on the 10-year treasury ended 2023 at 3.9%.
We wrote last quarter that we were cautiously optimistic.
But the year ended better than, even we, anticipated. Surprising employment strength and increasing home prices have remained dominant forces keeping the U.S. from entering recession. As consumers spend down COVID savings, they remain heartened by job stability, so overall spending has remained quite strong. Strong home values have also buoyed consumer confidence. This is very different from the historical pattern (although welcome and needed). In a normal economic contraction, people lose jobs and must sell homes, increasing housing inventories which bring prices down. In this rate cycle over 90% of existing homes carried mortgages under 4%. People were not forced to sell and have no desire to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. Inventory remains tight while demand stays solid, so prices have risen. The banking system remains resilient, financial conditions have eased, and financial market performance followed.
Heading into 2024, we see light at the end of the tunnel, while recognizing the risks that are still present.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
19% of women report feeling confident selecting investments that align with their goals
This is a discouraging statistic from a recent survey conducted on women and investing. We know that a gender gap exists when it comes to investing – on average, data shows that women’s investment account balances are less than men’s. There are a few often-cited reasons for this. The gender pay gap still exists, and women statistically spend more time outside of the workforce, meaning that women may simply have less money to invest.
But there is another reason. Women tend to feel less confident taking investment risk and therefore hold more cash on the sidelines, hampering their money’s growth potential.
But there is a difference between taking risk, and taking inappropriate risk for your goals. Women tend to benchmark successful investing not by the return numbers themselves, but by progress towards goals – buying a house, funding an education, or retiring comfortably.
Defining your goals and their timeframes is the first step toward building the confidence to invest. Money that you don’t need for 10 or 15 years can afford to be invested for growth. The farther along the timeline your goal is, the more certainty you can have of capturing greater returns by investing.
When women do invest, they see results. On average, women outperformed their male counterparts by 40 basis points or 0.4% over a 10-year analysis
On the flip side, studies show that over time, women’s investment returns tend to outperform men’s, with women exhibiting less impulsive investment decisions and staying the course when there is market volatility.
Starting early is the most powerful thing you can do to put yourself on track. If you didn’t start early, start now. Women already have the proclivity to stay invested to meet their goals, we just need the confidence to invest in the first place!
I joined Integras Partners in 2022 wanting to broaden my impact on people’s lives, particularly groups that have been underserved by the financial advice community – groups like women and single earners, which I am also a part of. Integras Partners was already well suited to women investors – focusing on the partnership and the “why” behind financial goals.
I’ll be writing more about these areas in coming newsletters, as well as general financial wellness and investing topics that I hope you will find interesting.
If you are already charitably inclined there are two gifting strategies that you should be aware of, Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) and gifting appreciated stock.
In Strategies for Charitable Giving – Part 1 we discussed the tax benefits of QCDs which can be done by IRA owners who are at least 70.5 years old. But what if you are younger and giving to charities? Are there any tax benefits available? Most people take the standard deduction since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act increased it, and if you’re not itemizing you lose the ability to deduct charitable contributions.
If you have appreciated stock (owned for more than a year) in a taxable investment account, donating stock instead of cash could provide a tax benefit to you and result in a greater gift to the charity.
Let’s look at an example.
Jim plans to donate to his favorite charity. He owns $30,000 of Microsoft stock that he purchased several years ago for $5,000. Jim is subject to 15% capital gains tax. If he were to sell the stock, he would pay $3,750 in taxes, leaving him with $26,250 to donate. If Jim is able to itemize his tax deductions, he would be able to deduct $26,250.1
If, instead, Jim donated the stock directly to the charity, he would avoid paying the capital gains tax. The charity receives the full $30,000 value, rather than $26,250. And if Jim itemizes, he may be able to deduct the full $30,000.1
To be eligible for a charitable deduction for this tax year, donations of stock need to be received by the end of the year.
Determining charitable giving strategies is one way that we partner with clients. We can help you determine if donating appreciated stock is right for your situation.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
