While the S&P 500 rose 26% at the headline level, it was almost entirely due to just seven “magnificent” tech stocks. The remaining 493 names contributed very little – on average up just 4%. This concentrated market condition continued through October when we finally enjoyed broadening market participation. Small cap stocks began a long-awaited turn-around with a two-month advance of 16%. The broad International Index rose 18%. Both are areas we overweighted in 2023 due to their relative valuations. While we think these sectors will continue to waffle back and forth for several months (as January has already shown), we expect a further broadening of market performance once we get some assurance on timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Interest rates have been the story since early 2022 and October showed what happens when our uncontrolled fiscal deficit intersects with decreasing foreign demand for Treasuries. The 10-year Bond went from a yield of 3.3% in May to 5% in October as auctions witnessed a pullback in foreign investors. This will become a larger theme in the future should our deficit growth continue unabated. Nevertheless, as inflation readings continued to decrease during the Fall and the market began anticipating rate cuts, the yield on the 10-year treasury ended 2023 at 3.9%.
We wrote last quarter that we were cautiously optimistic.
But the year ended better than, even we, anticipated. Surprising employment strength and increasing home prices have remained dominant forces keeping the U.S. from entering recession. As consumers spend down COVID savings, they remain heartened by job stability, so overall spending has remained quite strong. Strong home values have also buoyed consumer confidence. This is very different from the historical pattern (although welcome and needed). In a normal economic contraction, people lose jobs and must sell homes, increasing housing inventories which bring prices down. In this rate cycle over 90% of existing homes carried mortgages under 4%. People were not forced to sell and have no desire to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. Inventory remains tight while demand stays solid, so prices have risen. The banking system remains resilient, financial conditions have eased, and financial market performance followed.
Heading into 2024, we see light at the end of the tunnel, while recognizing the risks that are still present.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
Employer retirement plans are often an individual’s greatest investment, because employees keep the long-term mindset needed to stay invested during down markets. Plus, investments are made with every paycheck and equal contributions buy more shares when markets are down.
Unfortunately, many employees limit their salary-deferral contributions to only capture their employer’s match. If you pay your bills in full every month and have adequate savings, we recommend increasing your contributions, for all the reasons above.
For 2024, the new deductible limit for employees under 50 is $23,000. If you turn 50 before the end of the year, you can add another $7,500.
Lastly, you want to spread your contributions out to last through every paycheck, so you capture all the employer-matching dollars available to you.
Do you still have money in a former employer’s plan?
Employers have greatly narrowed plan investment choices to avoid liability after the tech bubble of 2001.
Some plans restrict investment choices to “target date” and generic index funds.
If you’re retirement-minded, getting out of employer plans usually provides greater flexibility in taking money out, including frequency and tax withholding choices.
If you are already charitably inclined there are two gifting strategies that you should be aware of, Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) and gifting appreciated stock.
In Strategies for Charitable Giving – Part 1 we discussed the tax benefits of QCDs which can be done by IRA owners who are at least 70.5 years old. But what if you are younger and giving to charities? Are there any tax benefits available? Most people take the standard deduction since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act increased it, and if you’re not itemizing you lose the ability to deduct charitable contributions.
If you have appreciated stock (owned for more than a year) in a taxable investment account, donating stock instead of cash could provide a tax benefit to you and result in a greater gift to the charity.
Let’s look at an example.
Jim plans to donate to his favorite charity. He owns $30,000 of Microsoft stock that he purchased several years ago for $5,000. Jim is subject to 15% capital gains tax. If he were to sell the stock, he would pay $3,750 in taxes, leaving him with $26,250 to donate. If Jim is able to itemize his tax deductions, he would be able to deduct $26,250.1
If, instead, Jim donated the stock directly to the charity, he would avoid paying the capital gains tax. The charity receives the full $30,000 value, rather than $26,250. And if Jim itemizes, he may be able to deduct the full $30,000.1
To be eligible for a charitable deduction for this tax year, donations of stock need to be received by the end of the year.
Determining charitable giving strategies is one way that we partner with clients. We can help you determine if donating appreciated stock is right for your situation.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
If you are already charitably inclined there are two gifting strategies that you should be aware of, Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) and gifting appreciated stock. To realize tax benefits for 2023, both need to be done before the end of the year.
Qualified Charitable Distributions:
If you are an IRA owner and are age 70.5 or older, you are eligible to make QCDs. Most people take the standard deduction since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act increased it, and if you’re not itemizing you lose the ability to deduct charitable contributions. QCDs are gifts to charities made directly from your IRA. Normally, money that you take out of an IRA is taxable income, but QCDs are excluded. So, you are getting money out of your IRA tax-free to give to charity.
Once you’re subject to RMDs (currently at age 73), QCDs are even more beneficial because they count towards satisfying your RMD. If you’re between 70.5 and 73 there is still an extra advantage in that the QCD decreases your IRA balance, which may reduce required minimum distributions in future years.
Let’s say that you are 71 years old, are already gifting to charities every year, and have an IRA. You have social security income which you supplement with money from your investment accounts, all of which is taxed before it hits your checking account. You’re writing checks to charities throughout the year – giving away money that you have already been taxed on. Making QCDs allows you to fulfill your charitable goals with money that you are not taxed on. And because you are reducing the balance of your IRA with these gifts, your RMDs will be lower than they otherwise would have (all else equal) when you turn 73.
There are a few things to note about QCDs, such as annual limits and which charities can accept QCDs. Determining charitable giving strategies is one way that we partner with clients. We can help you determine if QCDs are right for your situation.
In Strategies for Charitable Giving – Part 2, we discuss the strategy of gifting appreciated stock.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
Changes to the FAFSA form and the formula for determining a family’s need for aid are changing, effective for the 2024-2025 school year. While all the changes are beyond the scope of this post, here we highlight two from a financial planning perspective.
Parent Income:
Contributions (pre-tax salary deferrals) to employer retirement accounts are no longer added back to parent income. This could be an additional incentive for parents with employer plans to max out contributions in years that the FAFSA looks at income. The FAFSA looks at the year two years prior to the beginning of the school year. For example, the 2024-2025 school year looks at 2022 income. Note that this change only applies to contributions that come straight from a salary reduction. Contributions to IRAs that are deductible on the tax return are still added back to parent income.
Grandparent Contributions: Up until now, while grandparent (or other non-parent) owned 529 accounts did not count towards a parent or student’s assets, withdrawals from said account counted as income to the student which had to be reported on the FAFSA. This could reduce the student’s aid eligibility. With the changes, withdrawals from a third-party owned 529 account will no longer count as student income. Grandparents can now maintain a 529 account for their grandchildren and distribute funds without impacting aid eligibility.
Because of these changes, the 2024-2025 form will not be available until December this year. You can stay up to date on announcements at https://studentaid.gov/, or through college financial aid office websites.
Call us to review your investment approach (404) 941-2800.
