The S&P 500 Index® gained 15% in the first half of 2024. However, this gain was not as healthy as it appeared on the surface. The top 10 stocks represent more of the S&P than they have at any time in the last 25 years. Without the top 10 stocks, the remaining 490 names were up only 4%. We’ve written about performance disparities in several of our quarterly commentaries – large vs. small companies, growth vs. value, domestic vs. international. These types of disparities can’t last forever – either the rest of the market catches up or the top of the market cools down. We were happy to see some of the former this month, but we still find ourselves in a very concentrated market.
Many newer investors begin with index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, which means the largest companies in the index determine most of its performance. Today, the stock prices of these largest companies tend to move together – they are driven by similar factors such as enthusiasm over AI. So, a decline in one big name often drags the others down. Younger investors should think about broadening their investments (beyond the largest U.S. companies) to gain exposure to additional factors that tend to reward investors over time. Career Builders have the power of time on their side. Investing early in your career is always a good idea.
In addition to the issue of market concentration, there are beginning signs of a cooling economy. We can’t say that a recession is around the corner. U.S. economic growth continues, inflation is crawling lower, and consumer spending on services (travel, etc.) is strong. However, unemployment claims are rising. Broad consumer spending and housing sales are both slowing. Disinflationary forces are beginning to be felt and the earnings growth needed to support stock prices could become challenged. We advise Established Professionals to keep safer investments for money needed in the shorter term. But it is important to keep a long-term perspective for your retirement savings. Fear of the short-term and the emotional investment responses it can cause can be a major detriment to meeting your goal.
In a market trading at 24x earnings, some healthy caution is in order, but we’re not reducing stock exposure at this point. Despite the market’s concentration risks, overall corporate earnings should strengthen the remainder of this year and beyond. Over long periods, markets trend higher, even with downturns and corrections along the way. Our portfolios are structured to withstand these downturns, with money needed in earlier retirement years invested most conservatively.
There is still the question of how long interest rates will remain elevated. We expect to see inflation moderate, and the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September. This should allow capital-intensive businesses and commercial real estate borrowers to refinance at lower rates – feeding economic activity and supporting those smaller-cap stocks that have underperformed the largest companies.
Most 401(k) and other retirement plans offer Target Date Funds (TDFs) as a default choice. They have become increasingly popular for a few good reasons but are rarely the best solution once your accounts achieve some size.
Let’s look at how they work and whether they are the most efficient choice for you.
TDFs are a great choice for beginners, or when you join a new employer plan. There is usually a lineup of funds targeting retirement dates in increments of five or so years. The concept is that the fund becomes increasingly conservative as the target date approaches, but that is a one-size-fits-all approach that can’t take your unique needs into account.
So, when are TDFs not the best investment choice?
To start, all of your money is invested with one fund family, instead of getting different approaches and methodologies. These funds are also usually invested across all asset classes and industries instead of those best suited to the current economic environment. They also evenly spread bond exposure instead of actively selecting the most appropriate bond sectors.
The biggest challenge with TDFs is that you don’t want all your investments too conservative as you enter retirement.
Yes, you want to make sure that you have some conservative assets to draw from during rough patches, but you still need growth during retirement to keep pace with inflation.
Here are a few things to consider:
· Do you actively rebalance your accounts?
· Does your plan have tools to evaluate your allocation vs. your goals and timeframes?
· Do you compare what you own against what’s available?
· Have you considered the advantages of an IRA for funds in an old employer plan?
· Are you layering investment risks to match your goal timeframes?
Reaching certain ages can be meaningful for financial planning. Age can affect contributions and withdrawal rules from retirement accounts, social security and pension options, and even taxes as many aspects of the tax code are linked to age.
Here are a few significant ages and planning considerations.
50: Eligible to make catch-up contributions to retirement accounts
55: Eligible for penalty exceptions for certain withdrawals from employer retirement accounts
59 ½: Eligible for retirement account withdrawals without early distribution penalty; Potentially eligible to move money from an employer plan to an IRA while still working
60: Beginning in 2025, additional catch-up contributions allowed
62: Earliest age to claim social security (at a reduced benefit amount)
65: Eligible for Medicare coverage (pay attention to enrollment period, which opens prior to 65th birthday); Increase in standard deduction
67: Full retirement age for social security for most people (depends on birth year)
70: Maximum social security benefit is reached
70 ½: Eligible to make Qualified Charitable Distributions
73 or 75: Required minimum distribution age from retirement accounts (depends on birth year)
Integras Partners provides financial planning and investment management to our clients. We have a deep relationship with our clients and understand their needs and goals. The planning process is integral to investment allocation decisions.
Laser-focus on inflation was the key driver of both interest rates and market performance over the past two years.
Inflation continues retreating towards the targeted 2% range, which should largely be achieved around mid-year. We expect the Fed will begin lowering rates during the summer. While the bond market has priced-in 6 rate cuts for the year, beginning as early as March, we believe it will be a more modest and later cutting cycle. From there, the narrative should shift from inflation and interest rates back to the fundamentals of economic growth and earnings. There is still a risk that the economy could pick up steam and inflation return to haunt us once again, a la 1980. Nor are we out of the woods of potential economic weakness. But we see light at the end of the tunnel.
We remain optimistic about the long-awaited resurgence of small-cap, value, and international stocks closing the performance gap versus U.S. large-cap growth over the ensuing economic cycle.
The old maxim of ‘no tree grows to the sky’ will ultimately prevail. We find it unlikely that valuations of the “Magnificent 7” can continue to rise unabated. Valuation is a fundamental driver of long-term performance, and small caps and international markets remain undervalued relative to history.
As we expect a return to economic fundamentals over 2024, much depends on the economic growth and labor productivity needed for earnings to meet or exceed expectations. Should the economy slow, stock markets will have a hard time producing meaningful gains. While not our base case, we will remain mindful of the many economic indicators still flashing red.
We understand it is an election year. As November approaches, we typically see markets stagnate or slightly decline as the uncertainty and anticipation mounts. However, history tells us that regardless of who wins, there is negligible impact on financial markets in aggregate. In the end, regardless of whether your favored party wins or loses, there is no advantage in changing investment policy.
The normalization of interest rates is an uncertain path and forecasting economic growth is even more difficult. As investment themes change throughout the year, we will be looking for areas where valuation and earnings potential appear strongest – a disciplined approach that has served us well long-term.
What remains paramount is our desire to always take care of our clients’ current investment needs, while working towards achieving long-term investment goals.
With our time horizon investment process, we have successfully sheltered near-term spending needs from market disruptions, giving the longer-term assets the time needed to allow these disruptions to play out. Our long-held mantra of “go live life, we’ve got your back” has worked throughout this period of upheaval and we will be making sure that continues.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
While the S&P 500 rose 26% at the headline level, it was almost entirely due to just seven “magnificent” tech stocks. The remaining 493 names contributed very little – on average up just 4%. This concentrated market condition continued through October when we finally enjoyed broadening market participation. Small cap stocks began a long-awaited turn-around with a two-month advance of 16%. The broad International Index rose 18%. Both are areas we overweighted in 2023 due to their relative valuations. While we think these sectors will continue to waffle back and forth for several months (as January has already shown), we expect a further broadening of market performance once we get some assurance on timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Interest rates have been the story since early 2022 and October showed what happens when our uncontrolled fiscal deficit intersects with decreasing foreign demand for Treasuries. The 10-year Bond went from a yield of 3.3% in May to 5% in October as auctions witnessed a pullback in foreign investors. This will become a larger theme in the future should our deficit growth continue unabated. Nevertheless, as inflation readings continued to decrease during the Fall and the market began anticipating rate cuts, the yield on the 10-year treasury ended 2023 at 3.9%.
We wrote last quarter that we were cautiously optimistic.
But the year ended better than, even we, anticipated. Surprising employment strength and increasing home prices have remained dominant forces keeping the U.S. from entering recession. As consumers spend down COVID savings, they remain heartened by job stability, so overall spending has remained quite strong. Strong home values have also buoyed consumer confidence. This is very different from the historical pattern (although welcome and needed). In a normal economic contraction, people lose jobs and must sell homes, increasing housing inventories which bring prices down. In this rate cycle over 90% of existing homes carried mortgages under 4%. People were not forced to sell and have no desire to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. Inventory remains tight while demand stays solid, so prices have risen. The banking system remains resilient, financial conditions have eased, and financial market performance followed.
Heading into 2024, we see light at the end of the tunnel, while recognizing the risks that are still present.
So, enjoy today and tomorrow, and let us do the worrying!
19% of women report feeling confident selecting investments that align with their goals
This is a discouraging statistic from a recent survey conducted on women and investing. We know that a gender gap exists when it comes to investing – on average, data shows that women’s investment account balances are less than men’s. There are a few often-cited reasons for this. The gender pay gap still exists, and women statistically spend more time outside of the workforce, meaning that women may simply have less money to invest.
But there is another reason. Women tend to feel less confident taking investment risk and therefore hold more cash on the sidelines, hampering their money’s growth potential.
But there is a difference between taking risk, and taking inappropriate risk for your goals. Women tend to benchmark successful investing not by the return numbers themselves, but by progress towards goals – buying a house, funding an education, or retiring comfortably.
Defining your goals and their timeframes is the first step toward building the confidence to invest. Money that you don’t need for 10 or 15 years can afford to be invested for growth. The farther along the timeline your goal is, the more certainty you can have of capturing greater returns by investing.
When women do invest, they see results. On average, women outperformed their male counterparts by 40 basis points or 0.4% over a 10-year analysis
On the flip side, studies show that over time, women’s investment returns tend to outperform men’s, with women exhibiting less impulsive investment decisions and staying the course when there is market volatility.
Starting early is the most powerful thing you can do to put yourself on track. If you didn’t start early, start now. Women already have the proclivity to stay invested to meet their goals, we just need the confidence to invest in the first place!
I joined Integras Partners in 2022 wanting to broaden my impact on people’s lives, particularly groups that have been underserved by the financial advice community – groups like women and single earners, which I am also a part of. Integras Partners was already well suited to women investors – focusing on the partnership and the “why” behind financial goals.
I’ll be writing more about these areas in coming newsletters, as well as general financial wellness and investing topics that I hope you will find interesting.
